Champions League Odds & Pick for Club Brugge vs. Manchester City: Will Cityzens Roll in Group Stage Match?

Champions League Odds & Pick for Club Brugge vs. Manchester City: Will Cityzens Roll in Group Stage Match? article feature image
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Manchester City FC/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City star Raheem Sterling.

Club Brugge vs. Man City Odds

Manchester City Odds -350
Club Brugge Odds +900
Draw +480
Over/Under 3.5 (+135 / -170)
Day | Time Tuesday | 12:45 p.m. ET
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Reigning finalists Manchester City will kick off the third week of Champions League play Wednesday when it visits Belgian side Club Brugge.

While the English giant enters the match as a massive favorite, it’s behind Club Brugge in the Group A table. Through two fixtures, Paris Saint-Germain is in the top position with six points, followed by Brugge (four points), Manchester City (three points) and RB Leipzig without any points thus far.

The Belgian side will be facing City for the first time, but it has had plenty of encounters with English clubs in the past. Brugge is 6-15-5 (W-L-D) against English teams, with six meetings coming since 2015. In those games, Brugge has only recorded a lone draw to go with five losses.

Will that run continue in this matchup or will Club Brugge continue to serve as one of the surprise stories of the Champions League?

Club Brugge Holding Its Own in Champions League

Though the second-place status Brugge holds might come as a surprise, it’s a deserved one.

Brugge notched a draw in its first match against PSG and a comeback 2-1 win against RB Leipzig in its second fixture. It’s hard to argue either result was undeserved, as the Belgian squad garnered more shots on target in each contest and has a +0.7 expected goals through the games. Statistically speaking, four points is about where they should be.

Club Brugge also sits in the second position of its domestic competition in the Belgian Pro League. Despite its current standing, the team remains a solid favorite to win the league, as it has in three of the past four years.

However, Champions League is far different than the Belgian top flight and Brugge will have its hands full Tuesday with a Man City team that is clicking once again.

Man City Back to Normal, Winning Ways

Though manager Pep Guardiola’s squad has had its struggles throughout the season, it appears that the English champion is firing again.

A loss to Tottenham Hotspur at the beginning of the year is the only match where  City has conceded in the Premier League, allowing it to maintain a third-place position in the English top flight and only two points back of league-leading Chelsea.

City looked as dangerous as ever in a 2-2 draw with Liverpool just before the international break. The Cityzens performed far better than the scoreline suggests, conceding just .02 xG in the first half and putting Liverpool on its back foot for a large portion of the match.

That showing was followed up after the break with a clean 2-0 win over Burnley. It was a typical performance, as City possessed the ball for more than 70% of the game and only conceded two shots on goal in contrast to six of its own.

If anyone is to be aggrieved with their position in the table, it’s City, who has posted a group best 1.29 xG, but sits in the third slot. The team is in a position where it could really use three points against Brugge. Anything other than a victory would serve as a massive disappointment.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Unless you heavily back the Belgian team, it’s hard to find any value betting a straight match result. Rather, you should look to a spread for a better return.

Dating back to last year’s group stage, Manchester City has scored three or more goals in 5 of 8 games. In those matches, the Cityzens conceded goals in three of them. Guardiola’s side has an understanding of how to remain composed in the Champions League, with Leipzig’s three-goal outing (in a 6-3 City win) as one of the rare poor defensive performances the club has had.

Even in the 2-0 loss at PSG, the back line only conceded 0.52 xG, while the attack generated 1.74 xG in defeat. The result was a bit of a fluke, but that’s part of the game. City wasn’t clinical enough in Paris, but against Brugge it won’t have to be.

Club Brugge is a sturdy defensive side, but thwarting the City attack for 90 minutes will be an incredibly difficult task. With 17 goals conceded in its past six matches against English clubs, Brugge’s defensive efforts in its domestic league haven’t moved in sync to European competition, offering opponents numerous chances to score on a consistent basis.

Needing a high-quality UCL performance to recover a top-two position in the table, the Cityzens should come out firing and I expect an onslaught of attacking to ensue.

Back Manchester City to return to its dominant ways and trust the English powerhouse to win by two-plus goals.

Pick: Manchester City -1.5 (-125)

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