It's going to take a miracle for Liverpool to come back and advance past Barcelona in the Champions League semifinals, but we've seen a fair share of big upsets in this tournament.
Three teams in the competition's history have come back from 3+ goal deficits to advance in a knockout stage, including Roma vs. Barcelona in the quarterfinals just last year. Barca won the first leg, 4-1, but lost the second leg on the road, 3-0.
Odds to Advance (Barcelona lead 3-0 on aggregate)
- Barcelona (-1800) — $1,800 wins $100
- Liverpool (+1150) — $100 wins $1,150
Second Leg Odds (at Liverpool)
- Liverpool (+155)
- Barcelona (+175)
- Draw (+270)
- Over/Under 3 (u-116)
Champions League Title Odds
- Barcelona opened at +600 back on August 1st, 2018, and odds were never higher during the entire tournament. (bet Barca +550 to win)
- Ajax were 250-1 last summer and even as recently as February, but they're now -300 favorites to reach the final.
- Tottenham have ranged from +400 to +2800 throughout the tournament and still have a glimmer of hope heading into the semifinal second leg in Amsterdam.
- Liverpool are now being offered at +2000, their highest odds the entire season.
Injuries and Suspensions
Liverpool:
Mo Salah (concussion) – OUT
Roberto Firmino (muscle) – OUT
Naby Keita (groin) – OUT
Adam Lallana (muscle) – DOUBTFUL
Barcelona:
Rafinha (knee) – OUT
Ousmane Dembele (hamstring) – OUT
Betting Breakdown
Liverpool were already +1150 longshots to advance to the final after losing the first leg in Barcelona, 3-0, and now they'll be without two of their top players in Mo Salah and Roberto Firmino.
⚽ GOAL Barcelona!
Leo Messi, quite good. 3-0.
600th career club goal for the 🐐.pic.twitter.com/haQz6MPfI9
— Action Network Soccer (@ActionNetSoccer) May 1, 2019
After opening in the +115 range to win the second leg, Liverpool have drifted all the way to +155. Not only do they need to win by 3+ goals, but they also need to keep Barcelona off the scoresheet to have a realistic chance.
A Barca goal would force Liverpool to score at least five goals to advance which is highly unlikely. Blaugrana have only conceded one goal combined in five knockout matches (Round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal).
Barcelona had been undefeated in 23 straight games across all competitions before losing to Celta Vigo, 2-0, in Saturday's meaningless La Liga encounter. Most importantly, they wrapped up the league weeks ago so they were able to rest the entire starting lineup in order to be at full health at Anfield for Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Liverpool had to fight to a 3-2 win at Newcastle to keep pace with Manchester City at the top of the Premier League table.
Public bettors have taken notice and nearly 60% of tickets has come in on Barcelona to win the second leg. Just under 30% is on Liverpool while the other 15% is on the draw at +270 odds.
There really hasn't been any sharp money to hit the market yet; sportsbooks have just been adjusting to the latest injury news and moving the lines accordingly.
Liverpool will obviously need to go for goals which could lead to a fairly open game. That spells trouble against a full-strength Barcelona squad that can counter-attack with the best of them. A goal from Barca at any point would ultimately suck the life out of the match, and I think there's plenty of value left on the road side to win at +175 odds.
If Barcelona win the second leg, it would be the first time ever that a club has defeated three English teams on the road in a single European competition. I'll gladly take Messi and company at those odds to make history.
Value Play
- Barcelona (+175) at Liverpool
