Chelsea vs West Ham Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview
Darren Walsh/Getty. Pictured: Nicolas Jackson.
Chelsea vs West Ham Odds
| Chelsea Odds | -167 |
| West Ham Odds | +375 |
| Draw | +350 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -275 / +220 |
Chelsea look to make it two wins in a row when they take on West Ham in a London Derby.
The Blues got a much needed 2-0 win over Tottenham on Thursday to keep their hopes of a top six finish alive. It's been a difficult season for Mauricio Pochettino, who is likely going to be out at the end of the season, but Chelsea have shown some real signs of improvement in recent weeks.
West Ham's hopes of finishing in the top seven and getting back into Europe are fleeting by the week. The Hammers are coming off a 2-2 draw with Liverpool, but they have only won one match in their last nine in all competitions. They need all three points here, so don't be surprised to see them very aggressive and having a go at this match.
Let's get into my Chelsea vs West Ham prediction.
Chelsea
Chelsea have a clear weakness defensively and that is defending in transition, which is a massive problem here against West Ham given their style of play. As you've seen in recent matches against Tottenham and Manchester City that when the Blues are able to sit in a low defensive block and play in transition, they are a much better team.
With that being said, they have been pretty effective at breaking down low blocks recently and all has to do with their main man Cole Palmer, who is in the form of his life. Palmer has now scored 20 goals this season, but it's not just his ability to put the ball in the back of the net, it's his ability as Chelsea's main playmaker, dropping deeper in build up to pull defenders with him to create space for the rest of Chelsea's attackers that makes him so valuable. For the season, he has a 1.01 xG + xA per 90 minute rate, which is third in the Premier League.
The Chelsea attack recently has been really good recently because they've been more aggressive in possession combined with Palmer being on fire. Since the beginning of February, the Blues are averaging 2.08 xG per 90 minutes, which is top five in the Premier League.
Chelsea are dealing with a lot of injuries to their midfield and back line. Enzo Fernandez, Malo Gusto, Thiago Siliva, Ben Chillwell and Levi Colwil are all going to miss this match, which is a big problem when you are trying to defend the attacking talent that West Ham have. To make matters worse, over their last 12 matches, Chelsea are allowing 1.95 xG per 90 minutes.
West Ham
West Ham have been a bit fortunate to be in the position that they are in the table. The Hammers have 49 points on the season, but based on Understat's expected points metric they should only have 38.1 points.
The main reason they have over-performed so much is because of their offense. West Ham have been so good at capitalizing on the few transition opportunities they get a match. They have been basically been playing without a true striker because Jarrod Bowen has been in amazing form all season long.
West Ham are a team that will play a low block and then counter from deep. They have the ball carriers like Lucas Paqueta, Mohammed Kudus and Jarrod Bowen to be able to punish anybody in transition. Since February 26th, West Ham have only been held under one expected goal in two Premier League matches and are averaging 1.46 xG per 90 minutes.
The problem for West Ham always has been they are terrible sitting in a low defensive block. The Hammers are allowing the most box entries of anyone in the Premier League, the most progressive passes and dribbles and the second highest xThreat. They are allowing 2.28 xG per 90 minutes in 2024, which if it wasn’t for Luton Town would be the highest in the Premier League.
Chelsea vs West Ham
Prediction
This match really sets up for a back and forth type of encounters. The position that West Ham are in does not afford them to just sit deep here for all 90 minutes and even if they do, they have proven themselves to be ineffective at playing a low block, so Chelsea should have plenty of chances.
The flip side is Chelsea have struggled all season long defending in transition, as they rank 18th in final third to box entry conversion rate, and have been conceding a ton chances recently via direct attacks. Plus, the injury situation is pretty dire at the moment, so West Ham should have plenty of chances themselves.
With there being a lot of chances at both ends, I like the value on the over.
Pick: Over 3.5 (+100 via Caesars)
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