Copa America Picks | How to Bet USA at Copa America 2024

Copa America Picks | How to Bet USA at Copa America 2024 article feature image

Mark Thorstenson/Getty. Pictured: Christian Pulisic.

The United States Men's National Team begins their Copa America journey on Sunday June 23rd against Bolivia. There is a lot of hype, drama and skepticism surrounding Team USA at the moment. This will be the first tournament with an American starting XI of players playing in the top five leagues in Europe, and also one with a manager that has been under the microscope ever since the federation hired him back on.

Hopes are high, not only with Copa America being on US soil, but with the World Cup in 2026 also taking place in North America, and this tournament will be the stepping stone for the United States and their chances of contending for the World Cup.

This article is going to specifically lay out some of the tactical strengths and weaknesses of Greg Berhalter and then provide a realistic outlook of how far the United States can go in this tournament.

Here is my analysis for how to bet USA at Copa America 2024.

Copa America Picks

USA come into this tournament in decent form. They scheduled friendlies with Colombia and Brazil, the latter of which they are most likely going to meet in the quarterfinals, and while the match against Colombia was a disaster, they played much better against Brazil.

In possession, the US have played a lot of teams that will sit deep and play a low defensive block against them, which is where they have kind of struggled. Typically, it will be a 2-3, 3-1 or even 3-2 type of build up with the emphasis on getting a 5 v 4 overload somewhere on the pitch. Pulisic and Weah will typically hug the touchline to provide width with Adams and McKennie operating in the half spaces and the two fullbacks also pushing up to try and overload the last line of defense.

Where the United States have their most success is getting the ball to the left side of the pitch and having Pulisic, Reyna and Robinson form a passing triangle to create chances from out wide. When they are not pressed, the United States actually are pretty good at building out of the back and successfully creating chances in the final third. Since September of 2021, the United States are averaging 2.15 xG per 90 minutes, which is pretty impressive. Now that Florian Balogun is in the squad, they have a prolific striker and finisher in the box, so the United States are a good attacking team, in a sense.

The problems that exist for the Americans are when they face good pressing teams. The collection of players across their backline are not well suited to play a build out of back style when they are pressed effectively, which was the core problem when they faced Colombia. Matt Turner is a great shot stopper, but he’s not great with the ball at his feet, which leads to errors not only from him, but also by other defenders as well. For the United States to go far in this tournament, Berhalter will have to adapt.

The United States are actually a really impressive out of possession team. They will sit in a 4-4-2 or 4-2-4 compact mid bock and have the ball winning to give a lot of teams in this tournament problems. Take their match against England at the World Cup as an example.

They let England have the ball, did not allow them to play through the middle and ended up holding them under one expected goal in a 0-0 draw. The problems for the United States come when teams attack them from out wide. Berhalter is a little too set in his ways of playing a very compact defensive structure where teams that can overload and attack from out wide. See the Netherlands or Colombia for example.

While the United States are actually set up pretty well at this tournament with having home field advantage, their path is terrible. Even if they win their group over Uruguay, they are likely going to have to face Colombia in the quarterfinals or if they finish second they are facing Brazil, who are likely to play with a lot more intensity than the friendly this past Wednesday.

They closed a pick’em against Colombia in that 5-1 defeat, so I have a feeling they will be an underdog against them if they meet in the quarterfinals and also will be a significant underdog to Brazil.

I like the value on USA's stage of elimination to be in the quarterfinals at -110.

Pick: USA Stage of Elimination – Quarterfinals (-110 via DraftKings)

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