FIFA World Cup Soccer Qualifier Betting Props, Picks: 3 Best Bets for USA vs. Mexico
Robin Alam/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Christian Pulisic.
- The latest chapter in one of soccer's most storied rivalries takes place Friday when Mexico faces the United States.
- Analysts Jeremy Pond, Ian Quillen and Avery Zimmerman unveil their top prop bets for the match.
- Check out below where they've landed on their value picks, which all sit at plus money.
Things should be absolutely electric when the United States welcomes Mexico to TQL Stadium in Cincinnati for Friday’s FIFA World Cup qualifying showdown.
It goes without saying this is a huge match in this bitter rivalry, with both nations looking to secure their respective spots in next year’s World Cup.
We’re continuing to deliver more betting angles at The Action Network, including this element that features our top prop plays. From players to team and game picks, you will find a little of everything to entertain your interests.
That said, check out below where soccer analysts Jeremy Pond, Ian Quillen and Avery Zimmerman have found betting value on three highlighted props in this intriguing clash on American soil.
USA vs. Mexico Prop Bets
Jeremy Pond: BTTS & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+135 | BetMGM)
Let me first preface this by fully acknowledging that this looks like a bad selection on paper. Historical trends should be pointing folks in the opposite direction, but I’m taking a shot on a bet from the road likely less traveled.
Four of the last five meetings between these bitter rivals have resulted in one nation getting shut out by the other. So, why should we believe this pattern won’t hold form in this latest clash on a chilly, wet Cincinnati night?
Well, here’s why. Regardless of what you think looking at the current standings, I can tell you two things that are true and won’t change. The U.S. and Mexico are making the 2022 World Cup field. End of story. So unlike past confrontations, where conservative approaches have been the common theme, this contest has all the makings of being an wide-open confrontation.
A loss doesn’t hurt either team’s chances of punching their respective Qatar tickets, so I fully expect both outfits — especially Mexico — to be on the throttle from the start in search of all three points and the victory.
That said, I’m backing the play of Both Teams to Score (Yes) with the combined total under 4.5 goals at +135 odds via BetMGM as my top prop pick. Sit back and enjoy this entertaining affair, with each country finding the back of the net at least once in what should be a heated match.
Ian Quillen: Total Goal Bands — 2-3 (+110 | DraftKings)
As I discussed in my match preview, I think the psychology of this rivalry might get the better of these teams.
In terms of reaching Qatar, a draw would suit both sides fine. However, the occasion will make winning feel more important than the table should indicate.
So, I think we get at least a couple goals — two most likely or maybe three — even if there’s no logical need to come out searching for them. Really, though, this is the way these games have always played out in the states, and often in Mexico as well.
The total has landed on two or three in seven of the past eight qualifiers between these nations, and eight of the 12 overall since the start of the 1998 cycle. In this cycle, eight of these teams’ 12 previous qualifiers have finished on two or three total goals.
I was even more aggressive on my match preview, playing the total at exactly two goals. However, if I was going to hedge, I would do so up and not down.
That makes the price here — and implied probability 47.6% probability — pretty clear value.
Avery Zimmerman: USA To Win Either Half (+105 | Caesars)
If you want to back the red, white and blue in this contest, this is a great option to roll with in my opinion.
Looking at it purely from a numbers perspective, there is clear value in this wager. Caesars is offering the best odds on the market for the U.S. to win each half and/or either half (listed at +270 | +240), and taking the odds given from other books would give a solid expected value on this prop at plus-money.
For example, FanDuel, which actually has the US at longer odds to win (+190) than Caesars, has each half listed at +250 and +210, respectively. These implied probabilities of 28.6% and 32.3% give us a 51.7% of the U.S. winning either half.
With that number, a price closer to -110 or even shorter would be expected from oddsmakers, but the rationale from my colleagues above offer a solid rationale as well.
If we’re in for an end-to-end game, and if goals are in the forecast for both squads, there’s a good chance for the US to capitalize on home soil.
And when considering the U.S. has won four of its last five World Cup qualifiers against Mexico on American soil, I really like this prop.
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