Gold Cup Quarterfinal Odds, Betting Preview: Lopsided Action on USA to Beat Curacao

Jun 29, 2019 5:35 PM EDT
Credit:

David Richard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: USA’s Jozy Altidore and Aaron Long

  • As expected, USA won Group D and are now heavy favorites to advance past Curacao in the CONCACAF Gold Cup quarterfinal on Sunday night (8 p.m. ET on FS1).
  • Bettors have been all over USA and the over since odds opened behind both sharp and public action.

USA are massive -1750 favorites to advance past Curacao in the Gold Cup quarterfinal at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia on Sunday night.

The other Gold Cup quarterfinal matchups are:

  • Canada (-280) vs. Haiti (+225): Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
  • Mexico (-500) vs. Costa Rica (+390): Saturday, 9:30 p.m. ET
  • Panama (-125) vs. Jamaica (+115): Sunday, 5:30 p.m. ET

If USA are victorious against Curacao, they’d face the winner of Panama/Jamaica in the semifinal next Wednesday.

2019 Gold Cup Odds

How USA Got Here

The USMNT mostly coasted through the group stage by beating Guyana 4-0, Trinidad and Tobago 6-0, and Panama 1-0.

Against Guyana, USA got two goals from Tyler Boyd and one apiece from Paul Arriola and Gyasi Zardes. They attempted 20 shots with 60% possession and 86% pass accuracy (561 passes).

In their 6-0 thrashing of Trinidad and Tobago, USA picked up two goals each from Zardes and Aaron Long while Christian Pulisic and Arriola netted the others. They attempted 27 shots, had 67% of the possession and completed 88% of their 515 passes.

In the last match to seal first place in Group D, head coach Gregg Berhalter shuffled the lineup and Jozy Altidore’s close-range bicycle kick gave USA the 1-0 victory over Panama. They controlled possession (63%) with similar passing to the first two games (87% of 536) but attempted just seven shots all match and got just two on target.

USA vs. Curacao Betting Odds (Sunday, 8 p.m. ET)

  • Odds to Advance: USA -1750, Curacao +1000
  • USA Odds: -835
  • Curacao Odds: +2500
  • Draw: +725
  • Spread: USA -2 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 3 (u-111)

The earliest betting market opened USA in the -525 range to win in regulation and quickly had to adjust. A lot.

Consensus odds have now reached USA -835 and some sportsbooks even list them as high as -1000 to get the victory in 90 minutes. There’s also very little doubt in the USMNT advancing with -1750 odds — a 94.6% implied probability.

While the public has been firmly behind USA, sharp bettors were also on board to drive the price.

Curacao have been on the rise over the last few years, though they still exceeded expectations in this tournament by advancing from the group stage. After losing the opener to El Salvador, 1-0, they defeated Honduras, 1-0, and earned a late draw against Jamaica, 1-1, to get them into the quarterfinal.

They’re playing with house money right now, but bettors just aren’t backing them to keep it close against USA. If you think Curacao have better than a 10% chance of advancing, you should search for a book offering odds better than +1000 to do so.

These two sides don’t have a long history and faced each other just twice when Curacao was formerly known as Netherlands Antilles. In qualifying for the 1985 CONCACAF Championship, USA won 4-0 and drew 0-0 against the tiny Caribbean nation. The population of Curacao is roughly just 160,000 — equivalent to Springfield, Massachusetts.

Zardes and Altidore are the +275 co-favorites to score the first goal of the match and there are 14 USA players listed before a Curacao name shows up at 22-1 (Charlison Benschop).

In the totals market, sharp and public bettors have again united, this time on the over (3) goals. The juice has already increased from -110 to -125 and could easily continue to rise with lopsided public action over the weekend.

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