Real Madrid vs. Getafe La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Madrid Generating Chances at High Rate (Tuesday, Feb. 9)

Real Madrid vs. Getafe La Liga Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Madrid Generating Chances at High Rate (Tuesday, Feb. 9) article feature image
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David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema.

  • Real Madrid looks to keep pace with city rival Atletico Madrid in a Tuesday matchup with Getafe in La Liga.
  • Los Blancos have been creating chances well of late, mostly due to the strong play of Karim Benzema.
  • BJ Cunningham expects a victory for Real Madrid and breaks down how to bet on Zinedine Zidane's team below.

Real Madrid vs. Getafe Odds

Real Madrid Odds -186
Getafe Odds +575
Draw +295
Over/Under 2.5 (+106 / -132) 
Day | Time Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET
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Real Madrid looks to keep pace with their city rivals when they battle Getafe on Tuesday in La Liga.

Real is well behind top-of-the-league Atletico Madrid right now and can’t afford to drop any more points for the rest of the season. Atletico’s draw with Celta Vigo on Monday puts them eight points ahead of both Barcelona and Real Madrid, although the league leaders also have a game in hand.

Los Blancos were saved from a potential upset at Huesca over the weekend by defender Raphael Varane’s two second-half goals to secure a 2-1 victory.

The bad news Real Madrid is they will be without their best defender and captain Sergio Ramos, who is reportedly going to be out for six weeks with a knee injury.

Real Madrid's centre back Sergio Ramos will have surgery on his knee.

He will be out for 6-7 weeks, according to COPE 😬 pic.twitter.com/4uRYvxm04h

— Goal (@goal) February 6, 2021

 

Getafe has been on a bad run of form over the past eight games, picking up only eight of a possible 24 points. The run though has been a microcosm of their season, as the Azulones are in 13th place and only four points from relegation.

Getafe has lost 12 of their last 13 encounters with Real Madrid, so it’s hard to see how they’ll break that streak on Tuesday.

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Real Madrid

Things are much better for Los Blancos than they currently appear. Manager Zinedine Zidane’s team is having no issues creating scoring chances at 1.80 expected goals per match, which is the second-highest mark in La Liga.

Pretty much all of the scoring has gone through striker Karim Benzema, who has 10 goals and a 0.57 xG per 90 minute rate this season. In fact, the Frenchman has been involved in 40.5% of Real Madrid’s goals this season. Los Blancos are in desperate need of someone else to step up and help carry some of the scoring load.

Ever since Real Madrid was upset at home by Alaves in December, their defense has drastically improved. Over their last 11 matches, Madrid are allowing only 0.83 xG per match, compared to 1.38 per match in their first 10 matches of the season.

Getafe has really struggled to create scoring opportunities, so I expect Real to continue their fantastic defensive record, even without Ramos.

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Getafe

It’s been a real struggle for Getafe this season, especially going forward. The Azulones are creating 0.95 xG per match, which ranks 17th in La Liga.

A lot of that has to do with the 4-4-2 formation they regularly utilize. The 4-4-2 is one of the most defensive formations in soccer, keeping eight players in front of the ball and clogging up the middle of the pitch, forcing teams to play the ball into the box from out wide.

However, teams that play out of it often forget about the offensive end, which has happened with Getafe.

Their defense has been stellar, though, allowing only 1.05 xG per 90 minutes, when playing out the 4-4-2, but a lot of that success has come against the bottom half of the table. In 11 matches against the top-10 teams in La Liga, Getafe has allowed 1.50 xG per match. Real Madrid should have plenty of scoring opportunities on Tuesday.

 Betting Analysis & Picks

I think Real Madrid should be able to make easy work of Getafe at home on Tuesday. With how many struggles the away side have had in front of goal, I have a hard time seeing them scoring at all.

Since I have Real Madrid projected at -305, I’ll back Los Blancos spread of -1 at -106.

Picks: Real Madrid -1 (-106)

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