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Leeds United vs. Bournemouth Preview & Pick: Peacocks Are Worthy Home Favorites

Leeds United vs. Bournemouth Preview & Pick: Peacocks Are Worthy Home Favorites article feature image
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Richard Sellers/Getty. Pictured: Crysencio Summerville.

  • Leeds United is a favorite to beat Bournemouth at home.
  • Is there value on the Peacocks?
  • Anthony Dabbundo discusses that and more below.

Leeds United vs. Bournemouth Odds

Leeds United Odds -140
Bournemouth Odds +380
Draw +280
Over/Under 2.5 (-126 / +104)
Day | Time Saturday | 11 a.m. ET
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Leeds United scored a late winner at Anfield to beat Liverpool 2-1 last weekend and potentially take manager Jesse Marsch off the hot seat.

The Peacocks now return home to take on relegation candidate Bournemouth as they attempt to create more space between them and the bottom three of the Premier League table before the World Cup break.

Leeds remain a major positive regression candidate given that they have a positive expected goal (xG) differential yet sit in 15th place with just three wins, three draws and six defeats. They’ll be expected to take all three points in this match and the market expects them to at home with a juiced odds-on moneyline price.

Bournemouth was headed toward a season-defining home victory last week up 2-0 against Spurs, but Tottenham roared back with three second half goals. Spurs finished the game off with a set piece goal in stoppage time to leave the Cherries without any points from the match.

Bournemouth have sustained their otherwise terrible chance-creation metrics by finishing at an excellent clip. Once that dries up, though, the Cherries will be up against it to fight off relegation.

Leeds United Pressing to Success

The biggest mismatch on paper is the Leeds press at home against a Bournemouth side that has had no answers for ball pressure this season.

Leeds are first in the Premier League in passes per defensive action, meaning that they aim to quickly win the ball by pushing numbers up the pitch and pressuring the ball.

Once they do win the ball, the goal is to move the ball vertically and quickly up the pitch. Bournemouth allow the second-most ball recoveries in the league, they’re 20th in expected threat allowed and rank 15th in NPxG difference.

Leeds also have a clear advantage in creating from set pieces in this match. They are sixth in xG per set piece in attack, but the Cherries have conceded the second-most xG from set pieces in the league.

Bournemouth concede so much territory that they also end up conceding a lot of set pieces in dangerous areas. So even if on a per set piece basis Bournemouth isn’t terrible defensively, they concede so many that it adds up against them.

Patrick Bamford hasn’t scored in the Premier League this season from more than four xG created. He’s never been a plus finisher, but no one is that bad. He’s combining with Rodrigo and the pair is producing more than seven shots per match. Add in auxiliary shot production from the wings and you have a well above-average PL attack.

Leeds are seventh in xG per match, seventh in big scoring chances created and are getting the ball into the penalty area more than enough to warrant the production being sustainable.

Bournemouth Getting Overpowered in Premier League

The Cherries have looked like a potent counterattacking team for most of the season, but it’s not really sustainable given the shot production of this club right now. When the two-man counter is perfectly executed, passed and finished into the corner of the goal it looks beautiful, but let’s consider just how bad Bournemouth’s attack is.

They are 19th in big scoring chances, dead last in shots and last in xG created. Bournemouth are 14th in set piece efficiency and don’t create many of them to begin with. Every attack in the league has produced at least 11.8 xG in the Premier League this season, except for Bournemouth’s. They have produced 7.8 xG in 13 league matches.

The Cherries have the worst field tilt and high turnovers forced in the Premier League. It’s only a matter of time before they get punished for the lackluster performances they’ve had. They have the second-worst xG difference per match of any team of the last five seasons except Norwich City last year.

Despite this, the Cherries aren’t even in the relegation zone right now. That won’t last.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

My projections make Leeds -146 to win this match at home. I’ve been higher than the market on Leeds for most of the season and that remains true at home against a relegation level team. Bournemouth are actually ahead of the Peacocks in the table despite their terrible underlying numbers. 

The market is aware of how bad Bournemouth is, and this is a brutal matchup for them on the road as well. The Cherries could create some opportunities in this match on the counter or in transition because of Leeds’ hectic style of play.

However, on the balance of the chances, Leeds’ press should control this match and produce a comfortable result for the Peacocks at home. They are due for a ton of positive regression and this is a great spot for them even after the Liverpool win.

The Pick: Leeds United ML (-135 via DraftKings)

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