Liverpool vs Leicester City Odds, Pick, Prediction: Bet Monday Premier League Over/Under
Chris Brunskill/Getty. Pictured: Darwin Nunez (left), Mohamed Salah (left center), Cody Gakpo (right center) and Fabinho (right).
Liverpool vs Leicester Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+110 / -138)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-200 / +150)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Two clubs fighting for very different objectives meet at the King Power Stadium as we make a Liverpool vs Leicester City pick.
The Foxes are in trouble of being relegated to the Championship. According to FiveThirtyEight, Leicester have a 70% chance of being relegated, so they are desperate for three points. Dean Smith has come in a made the Leicester offense into a powerhouse, but the defense has taken a massive step back from already being one of the worst in the Premier League, so it’s hard to see how they are going to slow down one of the best offenses in the PL.
Liverpool are on a tear as they try to rescue a Champions League spot after a terrible beginning of the season. Jurgen Klopp’s men have now won six straight matches and are showing no signs of slowing down. It’s pretty simple at this point. They need to win out and need either Manchester United and Newcastle to drop points for a top four finish.
Let’s break down the match and make a Liverpool vs Leicester City pick below.
Liverpool Finding Form — At Least Offensively
I know Brentford only created 0.2 xG against Liverpool, but they constantly were threatening Liverpool’s backline, so the Reds were very fortunate to have a couple of offsides called on Brentford, including a goal that got VAR’d off.
Liverpool’s offense is finally turning back into the elite attack we’ve seen for so many years, creating a combined 17.5 xG in the seven matches since Jurgen Klopp inverted Trent Alexander-Arnold into midfield.
That provides Liverpool the ability to build up in a 3-2-5 shape and push a ton of attackers forward to create numerical advantages against the last line of defense. Alexander-Arnold has been one of the best ball-progressors and suppliers in the Premier League for a long time now, so this has given Liverpool new life. It also has helped them breakdown low blocks, but also makes them dangerous in transitional opportunities, which they should have a ton of against an abysmal transition defense like Leicester.
However, inverting Alexander-Arnold into the midfield does have it’s downside. It means Liverpool are now relying on Fabinho to be their primary ball stopper in transition, and he just isn’t what he once was in that respect. Liverpool’s counter-press isn’t as effective as it has been years past and now they’re defending with a back three in transition.
Leicester Excelling on One End, Failing on the Other
Dean Smith has come in and completely made Leicester into an offensive juggernaut. After five matches in charge, the Foxes’ attack has generated a whopping 13 xG and 10 big scoring chances.
He hasn’t really changed the formation from what Brendan Rodgers was playing — it’s still a 4-2-3-1 concept — but what has helped is playing loads of attackers. Kelechi Iheanacho is injured – which is a blow – but Leicester have been without Youri Tielemans and James Maddison, who are their two best ball progressors and conductors of the attack. The two of them have combined for 0.54 xAssists per 90 minutes when the replacements for them are far lower. Overall, Leicester have been a top-five team at playing through pressure, which is a huge boost against Liverpool, as the Reds haven’t been able to counter-press like they used to.
While the offense has been awesome, the defense has been a disaster. Leicester have conceded 12 goals and 8.7 xG in his five matches in charge. Leicester were already a bottom five defense in terms of xG, so this new desperate open approach has created some of the most exciting matches in recent weeks. So, there really isn’t much hope for them to slow down Liverpool’s offense the way they’ve been playing.
Leicester City vs Liverpool Pick
Leicester have the attacking talent and now the tactical style of play to give any defense in the Premier League problem, like they’ve shown in creating 2.3 xG against Manchester City and racking up a ton of goals under Smith. However, due to that aggressive approach the defense is in a nose dive, which is really bad news going up against one of the hottest offenses in the Premier League.
This is going to be an incredibly open match given how Leciester are playing under Smith, so let’s bet on some chaos. I have 3.49 goals projected for this match, and I like the value on the over 3.5.
Pick: Over 3.5 Goals (+120)
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