Liverpool vs. Everton Odds, Pick | Premier League Match Preview (Monday, Feb. 13)
Tony McArdle/Getty. Pictured: James Tarkowski.
Liverpool vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-130 / +108)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-116 / -112)|
|Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Liverpool look to end their rut against their revitalized neighbors in the Merseyside Derby.
Jurgen Klopp’s side has continued to fall further and further away from the top four. Liverpool were thrashed 3-0 against Wolves last weekend, which means they have just one win in their last seven matches in all competitions. The last thing they want to face is their inner city rival on a new manager bounce in a look ahead spot with Newcastle next weekend.
Everton have been given a breath of new life with Sean Dyche now at the helm. They put in a masterclass of a performance in his first match in charge, beating league leaders Arsenal 1-0.
The Toffees are still in the relegation zone and are in need of points. So, you may see a more aggressive Everton side, rather than the more defensive approach Sean Dyche had when he was at Burnley.
Liverpool Still Struggling For Form
The Liverpool defense has been terrible all season and has shown no sign of improving. Since we came back from the World Cup, Liverpool have allowed 9.6 xG in six matches and they really haven’t played a murders row either: Aston Villa, Leicester, Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea and Wolves. They haven’t held an opponent under 1 xG since August 31st against Newcastle.
The same problems exist every single week for Klopp. Their midfield is aging and they can’t cover the same amount of ground that they are used to. That means Liverpool’s patented high press doesn’t have the same intensity that it’s had in years past. Last season, Liverpool’s PPDA was 8.07 and now it’s 10.77, per understat.com. Liverpool’s high turnovers have also dropped from 11.7 last season to 9.5 this season, per The Analyst.
Liverpool’s attack has been underrated this season, especially Darwin Nunez, who has been going through a finishing slump. Nunez has a 0.73 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is second in the Premier League behind Erling Haaland.
The problem for the Liverpool attack has also been Diogo Jota and Luis Diaz have been out for extended periods of time, and Mo Salah hasn’t been his usual self. We are 21 matches into the season and Mo Salah is only at a 0.46 xG per 90 minute scoring rate and is taking just 3.14 shots per 90 minutes, which are both the lowest of his career in a Liverpool shirt.
Good luck trying to break down a Dyche low block.
Everton Revitalized and Performing Well
Everton did a fantastic job against Arsenal staying compact and taking away Arsenal’s ability to build up through the middle of the pitch. Typically, Arsenal will invert Oleksandr Zinchenko alongside Thomas Partey, which allows Granit Xhaka to push up alongside Martin Odegaard to create a square in the middle of the pitch.
The Toffees went with a 4-5-1 out of possession and closed off the space in between the lines, which made life very difficult on Arsenal. The Gunners had 22 box entries, but were only able to create 0.9 xG, which shows how good of a job Everton did at defending their penalty area.
I don't usually re-up my videos but I was quite pleased with this one and you might have missed it in the midst of a busy weekend…pic.twitter.com/mJJEQyXlEn
— Jon Mackenzie (@Jon_Mackenzie) February 6, 2023
Yes, with Dyche at the helm Everton will have a defensive approach, but Everton created 1.7 expected goals against the best defense in the Premier League and Everton is a top five in terms of xG per set piece. Liverpool are dead last at defending set pieces, which is a major red flag considering they are without Virgil van Djik and Ibrahima Konate.
Plus, Liverpool’s defense has been so unbelievably bad in transition this season, ranking 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate. So, the two ways that Sean Dyche teams thrive are the two areas where Liverpool are struggling the most right now.
Liverpool vs. Everton Pick
I love Everton in this spot, but the problem is so does everyone else. Liverpool opened at -380 and are now down to -190 after Everton’s win over Arsenal. So, any value that Everton had on the moneyline or spread is gone.
However, I do think there is still some value in Everton to score at -137. Given all of the problems with Liverpool’s defense right now, coupled with the fact that Dyche is capable of exposing LFC, it’s a perfect spot to continue fading the Reds.
I have Everton projected for 1.03 goals and they created 1.7 xG in the last meeting with Liverpool.
Pick: Everton Over 0.5 goals (-137)
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