Man City vs Newcastle Odds, Pick, Prediction | Premier League Preview

Saturday, Aug. 19

3 p.m. ET

Peacock

Man City Odds	-150
Newcastle United Odds	+400
Draw	+300
Over / Under	2.5  -138 / +110

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Manchester City and Newcastle meet in the headliner of the Premier League slate. This match will also go a long way in deciding the title.

Manchester City cruised to a 3-0 win at Burnley on opening weekend as it seeks a fourth straight Premier League title. However, things are a tad different for Manchester City this season as there are a lot of new faces and, most importantly, no Kevin De Bruyne, after injured his hamstring against Burnley.

Newcastle was maybe the most impressive team in Matchweek 1 as it destroyed Aston Villa 5-1 at St. James Park and looked every bit as good as it did last season. The Magpies are once again a top-four contender, but it's matches like these where they can truly show how much they've ascended.

City h a few key players (İlkay Gündoğan and Riyad Mahrez) leave the club, but they signed Mateo Kovacic as a solid replacement and then broke the bank to sign the best young center back in the world, Joško Gvardiol.

Even though City has unreal players who can slot into a number of different roles, losing Bruyne is massive in terms of their ball progression and getting the ball into the penalty area. As you can see below, no one on City was even close to De Bruyne last year in terms of passes both into the penalty area and final third.

image via fbref.com

City was difficult to play against because Pep Guardiola was essentially playing five center backs at once, all of whom were world class ball carriers and passers.

It'll be interesting to see how City handles Newcastle's press and how effective they are getting the ball to Erling Haaland without De Bruyne.

Newcastle actually finished with a +0.85 xGD per 90 minutes, which was the second-best mark in the Premier League.

Newcastle absolutely bullies teams that try to play out of the back. Toward the end of last season, they did it to both Arsenal and Brighton, who were top-five in the Premier League in PPDA, opponent build up completion percentage allowed and high turnovers. They struggled to disrupt City's build up play last year, but are in a much better place now.

Not only can they bully teams that like to build out of the back, but when teams are forced to play the ball long, they make the match very transitional. Newcastle is the best transitional team in the Premier League. They rank first in final third to box entry conversion rate and are a brute to play against.

Alexander Isak has transformed Newcastle's attack because he's a striker without a weakness and can both receive and finish from almost any angle. He's given Newcastle versatility in their attack and has also created space for their other attackers.

Newcastle went out acquired a fantastic young midfielder in Sandro Tonali, who can play as a number 8, is very good in transition defense and will be perfect in a double pivot with Bruno Guimaraes.

The key for Newcastle in this match is being effective with their high press. They'll be fine conceding a lot of possession to City, but if City easily evades the first line of the press and has space to operate going forward, Newcastle will be in trouble.

Manchester City is coming off short rest after having played the UEFA Super Cup against Sevilla on Wednesday.

We haven't seen City tested against elite, high-pressing teams in a while, so it'll be fascinating to see how effective Newcastle is at disrupting City's build up play and whether their physicality will take over the match.

Without De Bruyne, it's really hard for me to see City getting margin against what was the second-best team in the Premier League last year based on expected goal differential. So, I like the value on Newcastle +0.5 at +120 (Bet365)

Pick: Newcastle +0.5 (+120)