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Man United vs Wolves Odds, Pick: Play Low-Scoring Premier League Match

Man United vs Wolves Odds, Pick: Play Low-Scoring Premier League Match article feature image
Credit:

Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Bruno Fernandes.

Man United vs Wolves Odds

Sat, May 13
10 a.m. ET
Peacock

Man United Odds

-270

Wolves Odds

+700
Draw+420
Over/Under2.5 (-156 / +128)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-116 / -110)
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Man United look to rebound after to back to back losses when they host Wolves at Old Trafford.

Thanks to United’s losses, the door has opened for Liverpool, who are now just one point back of United, though the Red Devils do have a game in hand. However, dropping points is no longer and option for Erik Ten Hag’s men given the way Liverpool have been playing lately, so they need to have full focus on Saturday.

Wolves have secured safety and will be playing in the Premier League next season after a 1-0 Midlands derby victory over Aston Villa on Saturday. Now that Wolves are safe from relegation, motivation has to be a question for a club that just waiting for the season to end. We’ll see what kind of effort Wolves put in on Saturday.

Man United Sticking With Struggling Tactic

Erik Ten Hag is demanding that his team play out of the back, but that has come with varied success, especially lately. Not only is David de Gea terrible with the ball at his feet, but their starting center backs Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez are out injured. So, the teams that have given Manchester United problems are the teams willing to press them high to try and disrupt their build up play. The matches against Sevilla and Newcastle are a perfect example of this, but Wolves are not a team that will press United high.

The Manchester United attack has been far from elite this year. In fact, they’ve scored fewer goals than both Fulham and Brentford. The problem is they’ve become too reliant on Marcus Rashford in attack. Rashford is an incredible forward, but he’s over-performing his xG scoring 16 goals off of 13.2 xG. The crazy part is Rashford isn’t even leading Manchester United in shots per 90 mintues, Antony is, but all of his shots are low quality chances from outside the box. Anthony Martial and Jadon Sancho have been in and out of form, so it’s basically just Rashford and Bruno Fernands carrying the attack at this point.

Manchester United’s defense is what is keeping them inside the top four. The Red Devils are only allowing 1.29 npxG per 90 minutes and have been very good defensively against teams in the bottom half of the table. Having someone like Casemiro in the middle of the pitch has been a game changer for Manchester United, as they’re only allowing 1.08 xG per 90 minutes with him on the pitch this season. They should have no issues keeping Wolves at bay.

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Wolves Battling Scoring Woes

To beat Manchester United, you have to be able to disrupt their build up play. Wolves are not the team built to be able to do that. Wolves are 12th in opponent build up completion percentage allowed, 13th in PPDA and 15th in high turnovers. The last time they faced Manchester United they did do a decent job at pressing United, which caused them to play very direct. That could be the case in this meeting, but the reality is that Wolves aren’t good enough offensively to threaten Manchester United’s back line on a consistent basis, even if they try to press high and are able to have direct counterattacking opportunities.

Wolves are the kings of low quality chances. They are second to last in big scoring chances, are only averaging 0.92 npxG per 90 minutes but have the seventh-most final third entries in the Premier League. Wolves have three matches left to go in the season and the striking quartet of Hee Chan Hwang, Diogo Costa, Matheus Cunha and Raul Jimenez have scored a total five goals.

They love to try and build out from the back and put a premium on doing so rather than trying to play direct. They lead the Premier League in touches in their own penalty box and final third and have the third-lowest direct speed in the Premier League. Good luck trying to break down United’s defense with that strategy.

Man United vs Wolves Pick

The previous meeting between these two teams had a total of 2.5 with the under closing at -110 odds. I understand that Rashford didn’t play in that meeting, but he’s not worth a 40 cents difference to the total. So, what we have here is an inflated total with what I like to call a “beach” tax.

History has shown that when we reach the end of the season and when teams having nothing left to play for, defensive effort goes down, as players are not willing to make the extra tackle or put the extra effort into pressing high. However, this under has gotten a little too extreme in Wolves’ case, especially given how bad their offense has been.

I only have 2.63 goals projected for this match, so I love the value on the under with this price.

Pick: Under 2.5 (+128) 

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