Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Best Bets for Manchester United vs. Bournemouth (Saturday, July 4)

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Man United has a golden opportunity Saturday to break into the top-four as they host relegation side Bournemouth. With both Chelsea and Leicester dropping points on Wednesday, a win would put the Red Devils ahead of Chelsea for the fourth and final Champions League spot.

At the other end of the table, Bournemouth is in desperation mode, sitting with one point separating them from safety. With time running out on the season, the Cherries can ill afford to continue dropping points if they want to stave off relegation.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Man United

You can make the argument that Manchester United has been the best team since the restart. With two wins and a draw, the Red Devils have been dominant, winning the expected goals battle 5.43 to 1.05 in those matches.

The break benefited the Red Devils, as their two star midfielders, Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba, finally get to be on the pitch at the same time; the two have combined for three goals and one assist since the restart.

The Red Devils have been dominant defensively at Old Trafford this season, with only 0.80 xG allowed per game — third in the Premier League. In fact, Man United hasn't conceded a goal at home in the Premier League since January 22.

Given how bad of form the Cherries have been in since the break, this is a perfect opportunity for the Red Devils to launch themselves into the top-four.

Bournemouth

Things are looking bleak on the south coast of England at the moment. The Cherries have been in horrific form since the return to play, losing all three matches and scoring one goal in the process. With relegation staring them in the face, it's now or never for Bournemouth.

The Cherries have struggled at both ends of the pitch this season, ranking in the bottom-five of the Premier League in xGF and xGA.

Although Bournemouth has already conceded seven goals in their first three games back, they've been a bit unlucky. The expected goals metric shows that the Cherries should have conceded just 3.78 goals. Bournemouth has lost their last five games on the road, but only one of those defeats was by more than one goal.

Previous Meeting

Bournemouth pulled off a 1-0 upset of Manchester United in their first meeting back in November. The Cherries deserved the victory, winning the expected goals battle 1.97 to 1.04.

Analysis

It's difficult to go against an in-form Man United side at the moment. With that said, I think the market is overvaluing Manchester United in this match:

• Man United projected odds: -269 (72.91% win probability)
• Bournemouth projected odds: +1149 (8.01% win probability)
• Draw projected odds: +424 (19.08% probability)
• Man United projected xG: 2.07
• Bournemouth projected xG: 0.67

I am going to against the grain in this match and back the Cherries to keep this game close.