Manchester United vs. Tottenham Betting Prediction, Preview: Spurs to Win is Your Best Bet
Photo by Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
- Manchester United's defense is already a concern, and that's before it takes on a top five offense.
- Tottenham's style might not always be pleasing on the eye, but it's been effective for Spurs.
- And a look at the advanced numbers paints a clear picture about the best bet on Wednesday.
Manchester United vs. Tottenham Odds
|Man Utd Odds||+145|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-138 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 3:15 ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock|
|Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Manchester United look to make their way back toward the top four when they host Tottenham on Wednesday at Old Trafford.
Manchester United were held to a 0-0 draw with Newcastle on Sunday, which ended their three match win streak in all competitions. Erik ten Hag has United at a good position in the table, but the advanced metrics indicate that there are still major problems with this club.
Tottenham sealed a 2-0 win over Everton last Saturday, holding the Toffees to zero shots in the second half. Tottenham are currently sitting in third place, tied on points with Manchester City and four points off their North London rivals Arsenal at the top. So, this is a really big match for Antonio Conte's men to remain in the title challenge.
Look at the final xG from the Newcastle match, and you would think it was probably pretty even. But 0.44 of Manchester United’s 1.26 xG came on the Marcus Rashford header that went wide in the 95th minute.
In reality, United created 0.82 xG off of 14 shots for the other 94 minutes of the match.
image via infogol.net
That's not entirely surprising when you look at their offensive numbers for the season. Manchester United are only averaging 1.25 npxG per 90 minutes and are taking 12.5 shots per 90 minutes, both ninth in the Premier League.
Manchester United are also playing one of the lowest defensive lines in the Premier League at 33.96 meters from the goal on average, per markstats.club. There is nothing wrong with playing a low bloc –, if you are good at keeping teams out of your penalty area.
Manchester United are not that team defensively. The Red Devils are allowing 1.40 npxG allowed per 90 minutes (15th in the Premier League), 14.5 shots allowed per 90 minutes (15th in Premier League), 1.64 xThreat allowed per 90 minutes (16th in Premier League), and a 14.5 box entries per 90 minutes (15th in the Premier League).
This is a bad defense that is suddenly going to keep a top five offense at bay? I don't think so.
Antonio Conte has turned his Tottenham side into playing a style that might not be very pleasing on the eye.
Tottenham's average field tilt %, which is Ball possession calculated for touches completed in final thirds, is only 36.18% — the third lowest in the Premier League. On top of that, their average defensive line, which is defensive actions’ average distance from the own goal (in meters), is 41.82 — 13th in the Premier League, per markstats.club.
While stylistically, the Spurs are not as possession dominant as Liverpool or Manchester City, playing this style has been effective, because Tottenham have the fourth best expected goal differential in the Premier League through 10 matches.
Tottenham’s low block has been effective this season, as they’re allowing 0.90 xG to teams not named Arsenal. Manchester United’s offense has really not been that good; they are very reliant on big scoring chances, because they are ninth in shots per 90 minutes but fifth in big scoring chances allowed, and which defense has allowed the fewest big scoring chances in the Premier League? That's right — Tottenham, which have only allowed five in ten matches.
Then, Tottenham have Harry Kane and Heung Min So,n who are about as deadly as it comes on the counter attack, with the two combining for 12 goals and three assists on the season.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Even if we throw out all of last year's data, in which Tottenham was a full goal better on xG since Conte took over, Manchester United are at a -0.10 xGD per 90 minutes, while Tottenham are at +0.50.
So even if you don’t believe that Tottenham are at the +1.00 xGD per 90 minutes like they were under Conte last season, they are still 0.60 goals better that Manchester United. They should be favored at Old Trafford.
I have Tottenham projected as a +120 favorite, so I like the value on Spurs Draw no Bet at +107 (BetRivers).
The Pick: Tottenham Draw no Bet (+107)