New England Revolution vs. New York City FC Odds & Betting Preview: Can Top-Seeded Revolution Avoid MLS Playoffs Upset? (Nov. 30)
Tim Bouwer/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Gustavo Bou
- The New England Revolution face New York City FC Tuesday in an important MLS Playoffs matchup.
- The Revolution were +110 favorites but have been bet up to -115 leading into Tuesday's match.
- Ian Quillen previews both sides and gives his betting pick below.
New England vs. NYCFC Odds
|New England Odds||-115|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-185 / +130)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 7:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||FS1 | fuboTV|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The New England Revolution begin their attempt to become the eighth team in MLS history to win MLS Cup after lifting the Supporters’ Shield when they host New York City FC in Tuesday night’s Eastern Conference semifinal.
It’s the Revolution’s first meaningful match in the Eastern Conference in months after taking a commanding lead in the regular season standings. It’s also their first of any sort in 23 days after following the November international break with a first-round bye.
New York City FC makes the trip northeast after defeating Atlanta United 2-0 in a first-round match at home on Nov. 21. That was NYCFC’s first playoff win since a 3-1 knockout round game over the Philadelphia Union in 2018.
The Revs won two out of three games during the regular season, but NYCFC was the only team to score in all three meetings.
New England: Long Break Could Prove Troublesome
New England’s long break is far from ideal.
Since the MLS switched to a single-elimination format in 2019, only one team out of five has advanced from a playoff opener where its opponent had already played a postseason match.
But the sample size of that latter stat is admittedly small, and there’s probably some lurking variables in some of those games.
The Revs know this as much as anyone. They were seeded eighth last season, but with Carles Gil returning after missing most of the season to injury, defeated top-seeded Philadelphia 2-0.
Fast-forward a year, and the Revs are shield winners with a mostly healthy Gil, who is an MLS MVP finalist.
And this time around, the extra rest does mean the Revs are likely to have team-leading scorer Adam Buksa available.
Buksa did not join the Polish national team during the November window because of a foot injury. But the 16-goal scorer said this week he’s healthy after he also missed the Revs’ regular season finale.
NYCFC: Better Than Road Record Suggests
The story of NYCFC’s season should be broken down into three categories: home games at Yankee Stadium, home games at Red Bull Arena, and away games.
The Cityzens split their home games between two venues because of scheduling conflicts. In the Bronx, they’ve posted a +23 goal differential (including one playoff match) and a record of 7-1-2 (W-L-D). In home games in Jersey, their record is a more modest 4-2-2 with a +3 goal differential.
On the road, manager Ronny Deila’s team posted a 4-8-5 mark and a -4 goal differential.
Despite that poor road record and the Revs’ 12 home wins, City aren’t as steep an underdog as the table suggests. That’s probably at least partly because NYCFC led all of MLS in expected goal (xG) difference at +22.7, and tied for third in actual goal difference at +20.
But in the latter category, NYCFC built 19 goals of that difference in just four blowout wins, all at Yankee Stadium.
Betting Analysis & Pick
By now everyone knows about New England’s 23-day layoff. But in my opinion, it’s almost nullified by the fact NYCFC have also played only one match in that span, and that was nine days ago.
Additionally, with 12 wins at Gillette Stadium, the Revs are performing as a well-above-average home team in MLS. As for NYCFC, their four away wins are very average.
City’s expected goals on the road suggest they’ve underachieved on the road. But I think it’s rational to believe some structural factor explains the home-and-away disparity, since they are so much better at Yankee Stadium than anywhere else. The pitch in the Bronx is the smallest in MLS, and has often been the object of angst for visiting teams.
All that has me playing New England here at +110 odds and an implied 47.6% probability.
That probability is in line with the average home win percentage in MLS this year. And it’s probably a bargain given the home and away dynamics of both clubs.
Pick: New England ML (+110)
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