Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Southampton Monday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Dec. 7)
Neil Hall/PA Images via Getty Images. Pictured: Brighton & Hove Albion standout Pascal Groß.
- Brighton is favored over Southampton on Monday afternoon, with the total at 2.5.
- Jeremy Pond is betting Brighton (draw no bet) and the under at 2.75.
- Get his full betting breakdown for Brighton vs. Southampton below.
Brighton vs. Southampton Odds
|Brighton Odds||+145 [BET NOW]|
|Southampton Odds||+195 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+235 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-108/-115) [BET NOW]|
|Time||3 p.m. ET|
Things could get pretty interesting in Premier League action Monday when Brighton & Hove Albion hosts Southampton to close out the week’s card.
The Seagulls enter the contest unbeaten in their last three matches, highlighted by last week’s 1-1 draw against defending champion Liverpool. Those results were much needed for Brighton, which has accumulated just 10 points and sits in 16th place right above the relegation zone.
On the other side, the Saints have enjoyed a decent start and finds themselves in eighth place on the table. However, Southampton is winless in its last two games, highlighted by a stunning 3-2 loss to Manchester United at St Mary’s Stadium in its most recent fixture.
Let’s take a look at these sides and what could be in store in this showdown.
The Seagulls have really had a good run of bad luck so far this season. They have been way more competitive than their record has shown, which you will see via some key numbers below.
Brighton, which hasn’t won a match at home during its campaign, might have turned the corner in that stalemate against Liverpool. The Seagulls dominated the xG category at game’s end, holding a 2.1 to 0.5 xG margin against the European powerhouse.
The club needed a stoppage-time penalty from Pascal Groß to salvage the draw, but had to take plenty of positives from that performance.
Prior to that game, the Seagulls ran out 2-1 winners over Aston Villa. Danny Welbeck and Solly March bagged goals in that triumph at Villa Park.
When it comes to the statistical data, Brighton has actually put together some positive numbers despite its results. The Seagulls boast a modest 13.5 xGs and stellar 9.9 expected goals against, generating a +3.6 xGDiff and +0.37 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Brighton’s xGA is actually second best in the league, trailing only perennial power Manchester City by a tenth of a percentage point.
It will be interesting to see how the Saints mentally enter this affair after blowing a 2-0 lead against Manchester United last time out. Edinson Cavani came off the bench to provide a late double, leading the visitors to that shock victory.
Overall, Southampton has been top class when looking at its overall body of work in England’s top flight, though. The Saints are 5-2-3 on the season, which is good enough for 17 points, just two points out of fourth place.
As for the comparison to Brighton in the advanced metrics, Southampton surprisingly trails its foe in all similar categories.
The Saints have generated a subpar 10.6 xGs, yet respectable 12.7 expected goals against that result in a -2.1 xGDiff and -0.21 for xGDiff/90 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Picks
If you toss out the records and simply look at the metrics, these two are as evenly matched as they come. However, I firmly believe Brighton is better than its record show, which is why oddsmakers have favored the club in this game.
That said, I am backing the Seagulls via a Draw No Bet wager in this spot. Brighton has deserved better this season and I still believe it will contend for a spot right outside the top 10 in the standings.
I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 2.75 goals. There have been less than three goals scored in Brighton’s last three fixtures at American Express Community Stadium, and the total has stayed under 2.5 goals the last four times these sides have met at The Amex across all competitions.
Picks: Brighton — Draw No Bet (-134) | Total Under 2.75 Goals (-148)