Newcastle vs Tottenham Odds, Predictions, Picks | Premier League Match Preview

Saturday, Apr. 13

7:30 a.m. ET

USA Network

Newcastle Odds	+170
Tottenham Odds	+130
Draw	+300
Over / Under	2.5  -275 / +220

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Newcastle and Tottenham meet at St. James Park for a crucial encouter with European spots in the table on the line.

Newcastle have a bit of improved form lately despite the injury crisis they are dealing with. They are coming off a 1-0 away win against Fulham, which got them within two points of Manchester United for sixth place in the table. They got throttled in the previous meeting against Tottenham 4-1, so they will be out for some revenge.

Tottenham secured a 3-1 win over Nottingham Forest on Sunday to move ahead of Aston Villa for the all important fourth place in the table. It's still up in the air as to whether England is going to get the extra Champions League spot, so this match is incredibly important for Tottenham with Aston Villa having to travel to Arsenal this weekend.

Here is how I'm betting Newcastle vs Tottenham.

The must-have app for soccer bettors

The best soccer betting scoreboard

Free picks from proven pros

Live win probabilities for your bets

DOWNLOAD NOW

Newcastle are in the middle of an injury crisis across their back line. Dan Burn and Fabian Schar are the only center backs they have left that are healthy. All of their starting fullbacks are injured, so they've been forced to play youngster Lewis Hall at left back and Emil Krafth at right back, which is not ideal when you have to face the attacking talent that Tottenham are going to throw at you.

For a while, Newcastle decided to play uber-aggressive with their high press, having their back line come up and aid in the press because they didn't have the midfielders that were capable of covering a lot of ground when balls went over the top strikers dropping deep in build up. They have dialed it back a little bit the last few matches because of all of the inexperience across the back line, but the alternative also doesn't work. They tried to play a passive 4-4-5-1 for a stretch in the middle of the season and for a two month stretch allowed the most expected goals in the Premier League. So, I am not sure there is really anything they can do to slow down Tottenham.

The upside of Newcastle playing more aggressive out of possession is their offense started to flourish because they were forcing more high turnovers, which allowed them to play more in transition, which where they are at their best. Since they changed their out of possession structure against Aston Villa on January 30th, they are averaging 1.81 xG per 90 minutes.

A lot of their recent success has to do with the fact that its best attacking player, Alexander Isak, is healthy along with the addition of Harvey Barnes as another goal scoring option. Isak has quietly been on a tear recently, scoring five goals over his last six Premier League matches, which brings his total up to 15 goals for the season. What is even crazier is he currently has a 0.8 xG per 90 minute scoring rate, which is second in the Premier League behind only Erling Haaland.

Ange Postecoglu has brought an exciting brand of football to the new Whit Hart Lane, but with how good Tottenham have been, they've drastically over-performed and have struggled to control matches.

These are the types of opponents they struggled against as well. Because Tottenham build up in a 2-3-5 and rely solely on van de Ven and Romero to stop any transition attacks when they lose the ball, teams have been able to create a lot of chances against them on the break. However, Spurs have been fortunate to only concede 43 goals off 50 expected because of their goalkeeper Vicario's shot stopping.

With all of that being said, Tottenham are a really difficult team to slow down when they are in possession. Especially for teams like Newcastle who tend man mark, having someone like James Maddison, who is not only one of the best players in the Premier League on the ball, but is tactically intelligent on when and where to pull defenders out of position, has created space for all of their other attackers. For the season, Tottenham are averaging 1.77 xG per 90 minutes and have the fourth-most shots and penalty box touches. Not only that, but they created 3.8 expected goals the last time they faced Newcastle, which is their highest xG output of the season.

This is a match that sets up pretty well for both offenses. Because Newcastle and Tottenham are both likely to press high, it's going to create a very transitional back and forth type match, similar to the first meeting.

Newcastle's offense has played so much better at St. James Park this season, averaging 2.39 xG per 90 minutes. The width Tottenham allow them to thrive because at their core, because Newcastle are a direct attacking team. So, having Isak, Gordon and Barnes healthy is a massive plus for the Newcastle attack.

With all of the injuries to Newcastle’s defense, I want no part of trying to back them to get all three points here and instead really like the value on their team total.

Pick: Newcastle Team Total Over 1.5 (-122 via BetRivers)