North Macedonia vs. Netherlands Odds & Picks: How to Bet Monday’s Euro 2020 Matchup (June 21)

North Macedonia vs. Netherlands Odds & Picks: How to Bet Monday’s Euro 2020 Matchup (June 21) article feature image
Credit:

Eric Verhoeven/Soccrates/Getty Images. Pictured: Donyell Malen.

  • North Macedonia closes its Euro 2020 campaign with a matchup against the Netherlands, which has already won Group C.
  • The Dutch are likely to rest their regular starting lineup with an eye on the knockout stages, while North Macedonia eyes its first point of the tournament.
  • Matthew Trebby breaks down how bettors can find value in this matchup below.

North Macedonia vs. Netherlands Odds

North Macedonia Odds +1200
Netherlands Odds -420
Draw +510
Over/Under 3.5 (+128 / -155)
Day | Time Monday | 12 p.m. ET
TV ESPN2
Odds updated Monday morning and via DraftKings.

Welcome to potentially the most pointless matchup of the final group-stage days at Euro 2020. Might as well bet on it, am I right?

North Macedonia is out. They cannot advance to the knockout rounds, having already lost to Austria and Ukraine. Netherlands, meanwhile have already sealed first place in Group C. It’s a matter of keeping their big names healthy and getting the reserves some action here.

So how can we find betting value? Let’s dig in.

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North Macedonia Conclude Hopeless Euro Campaign

It looked like North Macedonia was poised for a potential upset in their opener against Austria, equalizing in the first half on a brutal defensive error. They got most of their 0.78 expected goals (xG) from that goal, though, and didn’t create much of anything on their own.

Macedonia lost 2-1 to Ukraine and created 1.56 xG in that one, although that was mostly due to the game script that saw Ukraine scored twice in the first half, leaving them comfortable to sit back and defend.

The most noteworthy names in the Macedonian squad are Leeds United defender Ezgjan Alioski, Napoli midfielder Eli Elmas and Genoa striker Goran Pandev, who has 121 national-team caps and has enjoyed quite a successful career in Italy’s Serie A.

Maybe Macedonia come out with reckless abandon in this one and figure they might as well go out with a bang since they may never get back to this stage again. I sure hope they do, because otherwise this is going to be a training matchup for the Netherlands.

Holland Poised to Rotate Squad vs. Macedonia

The Dutch have been chance-creation machines so far in their two wins, having notched 2.15 xG against Ukraine in a 3-2 win and 3.57 in a 2-0 victory over Austria.

This is the case without the Netherlands’ two attackers hitting their stride yet. Memphis Depay and Wout Weghorst have scored just once each through the first two games, with Depay’s coming from the penalty spot.

Since the Dutch just need one point from this game and are facing a seriously inferior team, it would shock me if Donyell Malen didn’t get a start. The PSV Eindhoven striker is due for a move to a bigger club, either this summer or in 2022, and has looked strong off the bench. A strong performance against North Macedonia could put him in contention for Weghorst’s starting spot in the knockout rounds.

In midfield, Ryan Gravenberch should be joined by Ajax teammate Davy Klaassen. Both are no slouches and coming off a spectacular title-winning season in Amsterdam.

Holland has gone away from its patented 4-3-3 because of two things: a plethora of center backs and lack of wingers. Next summer at the World Cup when Virgil van Dijk is presumably available, the Netherlands’ defense will be even deeper. Right wingback Denzel Dumfries has been fantastic, providing the width that the Dutch need.

It would be a surprise to see Dumfries or any of the regular defenders. Expect names like left back Owen Wijndal, Joel Veltman, and Jurrien Timber is make up the backline along with Manchester City’s Nathan Ake.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This one is tough to handicap.

I don’t think it can be overstated just how bad North Macedonia are. They did not qualify for this tournament through regular Euro 2020 qualification group play. They’re here because of the UEFA Nations League, which they thrived in down in League D. They won their group and entered a four-team playoff with Georgia, Belarus and Kosovo, which they won.

Teams like the Netherlands usually roll over teams like North Macedonia, which is what books are anticipating given the massive line.

The Dutch’s second XI is still miles stronger than the Macedonians’ and will have a point to prove. Malen could run rampant alongside Luuk de Jong, presumably, and there’s going to be plenty of quality everywhere.

Holland -1.5 is the only play here. The over on DraftKings is at -182, which is too much, and I don’t want to go all the way up to 3.5. Let’s just back the Dutch for a big win.

Pick: Netherlands -1.5 -124

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