Norway vs Philippines Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Preview
DeFodi Images/Getty. Pictured: Karina Saevik.
Norway vs Philippines Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-188 / +140)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(+200 / -275)|
|Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute World Cup odds here.|
Norway and Philippines meet in the final round of the group stage with both likely needing all three points to have any shot of making it to the round of 16.
It's pretty simple for Norway after their two poor performances against New Zealand and Switzerland. They need to win and make up the goal difference to overtake either Switzerland or New Zealand. They cannot win Group A, but they have a good opportunity to come in second no matter what happens in the New Zealand vs Switzerland match.
Philippines pulled off a historic upset over New Zealand to give them a shot at making it to the round of 16. Because of the goal differential tiebreaker, they most likely need to win this match. Philippines could sneak in with a draw against Norway and a New Zealand loss, but it's most likely that they are going to miss out on the round of 16.
Norway Need to Convert on Chances
It's been a really disappointing World Cup so far for Norway, who were put in one of the easiest groups and had a perfect opportunity in front of them, but they haven't been clinical in front of net and that has been the difference.
Through two matches Norway have taken 28 shots, created 2.7 xG and had 19 box entries, but still they have not found the back of the net. It's really shocking considering the amount of talent Norway have on their squad.
Norway have one of the best strikers in the women's game in Ada Hegerberg, who has won the Ballon D'or before. She was injured most of this past season, but in the years prior was a 0.90 xG striker in France. They also have Chelsea's Guro Reiten, who was one of the best midfielders in the Women's Super League this year.
The style of play from Norway, despite what you've seen through the first two matches, is really aggressive and in the past has led to some very high scoring matches.
There are so many times when Norway push five or six players up to the last line of the opponent’s defense and Guro Reiten is receiving the ball in the middle of the pitch with nobody within 10 yards of her.
Out of possession, Norway are a very intense pressing team who make the game very uncomfortable for whoever they are facing. So far this tournament they haven't been effective with their pressing, with only 15 high turnovers forced and a PPDA of 10.3. That will have to improve against the Philippines.
Philippines Will Struggle to Back Up Historic Result
It was a historic upset over New Zealand for Philippines, but to be honest they were very fortunate to win and through their first two matches they have been on the right side of variance, especially defensively.
They conceded two goals off of 3.1 xG against Switzerland and then New Zealand took 16 shots and created 1.9 xG but couldn't find the back of the net.
🇳🇿New Zealand 0-1 Philippines🇵🇭
Sarina Bolden's 24th-minute header was enough for the Philippines to secure their first ever #FIFAWWC victory.
This was just the third time in the history of the WWC that a host nation has lost a group stage game (Sweden in 1995, China in 2007). pic.twitter.com/NNY9NxVhNX
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) July 25, 2023
Once they went ahead against New Zealand they were very passive, but Philippines are very aggressive. When they have the ball they push forward and play transitional football and they do offers some pace going forward, which could give Norway some problems.
In terms of a formation, it’s a standard 4-4-2 from the Philippines and out of possession they look to stay very organized and at times have been difficult to breakdown, as we saw against New Zealand. The problem for them is talent level. They are vastly below Norway and really can't compete with them. This team went to the Pinatar Cup to play in Spain last year and lost all three matches to Scotland, Wales and Iceland by a combined score of 8 to 1.
Norway vs Philippines Pick
This is it for Norway, they need to win this match and they need to run up the score as well in case New Zealand either draw or beat Switzerland.
Norway have the offensive fire power to make up that kind of goal differential and they've been creating enough chances, they just need to be more clinical with their finishing.
This is a perfect positive regression meets negative regression type of match. Norway are vastly overdue to scored given the amount of expected goals they've created and the Philippines are lucky to have only conceded twice, as they've allowed 5 xG through their two matches.
So, I like Norway to win this match in a blowout at get to the round of 16.
The Pick: Norway -2.5 (+115 via Caesars)