Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Odds, Pick | English Premier League
Shaun Botterill/Getty. Pictured: Martin Odegaard.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Odds
Nottingham Forest Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-175 / +137)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-150 / +110)|
|Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Arsenal are looking to keep their slim Premier League title hopes alive Saturday when they travel to the City ground to take on Nottingham Forest.
Forest are in the thick of the relegation fight. They picked up a crucial point against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge last weekend that now sees them three points clear of the drop zone. They are going to have the worst goal differential of all of the potential relegation teams, so getting a result here at home just might secure their safety for next season.
Arsenal’s title hopes were essentially ended Sunday at home, when they lost 3-0 to Brighton. It was the Gunners’ worst performance of the season and it couldn’t have come at a worse time. Arsenal have dealt with a lot of injuries in their title collapse, but this is a perfect spot to right the ship and give the fans a response after such a poor performance last weekend.
Nottingham Forest Happy to Concede Possession
Typically, Forest plays out of a 3-5-2 with the focus on being dangerous in direct transitional opportunities. They aren’t the type of side that does well with a majority of possession. In fact, they average the least amount of possession in the Premier League. So, don’t be surprised to see Arsenal control more than 65% possession.
Their offense is almost entirely built on creating big chances in direct transitional opportunities. Even though they’re near the bottom in xG per 90 minutes, Forest have created the 13th-most big scoring chances in the Premier League. That will probably be the plan of attack, just like it was against Liverpool recently when the defense conceded 2.8 xG.
Despite adding Keylor Navas in net, Nottingham’s defense been incredibly poor this season — they’ve allowed 1.54 npxG per 90 minutes. Even when playing a 5-3-2 out of possession, Forest are allowing the second-most final third entries and second-most box entries in the Premier League.
Nottingham Forest is dead last in PPDA, dead last in opponents build up completion percentage allowed, and second to last in high turnovers. Their defensive results have been bad overall for the season, but when they have to play teams that will build up and break you down the way Arsenal can, it gets really bad.
Against Manchester City, Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Newcastle, and Manchester United, Nottingham Forest has allowed a whopping 26.4 expected goals in 11 matches.
Arsenal Looking to Finish Season Positively
Arsenal will technically still be alive for the Premier League title when this game kicks off and the matchup is a fantastic one for them.
The Gunners have been one of the best teams in the Premier League this season at breaking down teams that play low blocks. They play a 3-2-5 build up structure, allowing Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard to get forward, while Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka stay wide to stretch the defense and often times find themselves in wide areas.
Brighton caused Arsenal problems by utilizing a man mark high press. Nottingham Forest are not a team that is willing or capable to do just that. That means Arsenal will be able to enter the Nottingham Forest final third at will and create overloads in the box, just like they did in the previous meeting when they won 5-0.
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Pick
This is a perfect get right spot for Arsenal, who will still be alive for the Premier League title and will need to give the fans a response after their worst performance of the season.
Arsenal’s ability to build up in a 3-2-5 has allowed them to be incredibly successful at breaking down low blocks like the one Nottingham Forest is going to play, even if they drop five guys into the back line out of possession. That means Forest are going to have to effective defending in and around their penalty area given the amount of attackers Arsenal are going to commit into the box, which is something they haven’t been successful at this season.
I have Arsenal’s spread projected at -1.43, so I like the value on the Gunners -1 at -114.
Pick: Arsenal -1 (-114)
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