Chelsea vs. Everton Updated Odds, Preview, Prediction: A Plus-Money Prop for Thursday EPL Clash
Chris Lee – Chelsea FC/Chelsea FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelseas standout Mason Mount.
- Updated odds for Chelsea vs. Everton on Thursday afternoon list the Blues as a -390 favorite, down from -450 on Wednesday.
- Chelsea has been a bit sloppy defensively lately, and while Everton will be down a few players, their best offensive producers should be on the pitch.
- That's led Ian Quillen to a +145 prop for Chelsea-Everton. Get his full preview and pick below.
Chelsea vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Thursday | 2:45 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||NBCSN | fuboTV|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Chelsea will expect to keep pace in the Premier League title chase when they host floundering Everton on Thursday night at Stamford Bridge.
A mild dip in form has seen the hosts drop five points back of league leaders Manchester City after City’s 7-0 home win over Leeds United on Wednesday.
Everton have only earned five points while losing seven of 10 since the beginning of October to drop to 14th after a promising start.
The Toffees have not won in normal time at Chelsea since a 1-0 Premier League win back in 1994.
Chelsea Looking to Improve Defensively
After a dramatic and unlucky 3-2 defeat to West Ham in the West London Derby, Chelsea had better fortune in an equally turbulent 3-2 home win over Leeds United.
In a match with three penalties, Jorginho converted twice from the spot, with the second coming in the fourth minute of second-half stoppage time.
Chelsea had Mateusz Klich partly to thank after his foolish challenge on Antonio Rudiger set up the winner.
Manager Thomas Tuchel said Wednesday he will have midfielder N’golo Kante and Trevoh Chalobah available on the bench. Both have missed time with injuries in the last few weeks.
And overall, health is not a major concern for the Chelsea heading into the busy holiday season.
If there is one, it’s their recent defensive record.
Last weekend’s performance was just part of a stretch where manager Thomas Tuchel’s squad has conceded a goal in four consecutive matches, and five times total in their last two.
But the Blues had been riding their defensive luck for a while now.
Their 11 goals conceded is still lower than their 16.7 Expected Goals (xG) Against, which is two goals worse than second-place Liverpool and more than six worse than City.
Everton Hoping to Bounce Back
Everton’s spirited 2-1 home victory over Arsenal 10 days ago bore some signs of a turning point.
That appears to have been a false alarm.
The Toffees followed one of their best performances of the season with one of their worst on Sunday at Selhurst Park in a 3-1 defeat to Crystal Palace.
Manager Rafa Benitez’s side was on the back foot for the majority of the opening hour.
Yes, Salomon Rondon pulled the Toffees back within a goal in the 62nd minute. But when Conor Gallagher completed a brace with a brilliant goal from distance, it wrapped up a deserved result for the hosts.
Even worse for Everton, winger Richarlison, fullback and captain Seamus Colman, and attacker Andros Townsend have all been ruled out to injury against Chelsea.
Fullback Lucas Digne will also be out due to illness after a reported dispute with Benitez cost him his place in the squad at Palace.
With last season’s leading scorer Dominic Calvert-Lewin and center back Yerry Mina, Benitez’s 11 will more or less be decided for him.
Up front, the attacking burden is likely to fall on Demarai Gray, Solomon Rondon and Abdoulaye Doucoure.
Gray’s five goals — including a stunning winner at Arsenal — lead Everton as do Doucoure’s four assists.
Betting Analysis & Pick
You might write off Chelsea’s recent defensive sloppiness, but even so, their Premier League second-best 11 goals conceded is far better than their xG against.
The latter metric also doesn’t waver too much between home and away matches. It’s the offense that is more home-field dependent.
Meanwhile, Everton may be short quite a few players, but their biggest producers — not to be confused with biggest names — will still be on the pitch.
The Toffees have produced a respectable 9.3 xG on the road through eight matches.
Lastly, both teams have scored in four of Chelsea’s eight home matches and four of Everton’s eight away fixtures.
It’s hard to imagine anything other than a Chelsea win here, which is why the three-way line is where it is. But even with Everton’s injuries, they have enough firepower to get a goal — even if it’s an inconsequential late one.
So I like playing yes on both teams to score at +145 odds and an implied 40.8% here.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — Yes (+145)
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