Premier League Betting Picks & Predictions: Bet on High-Scoring Match in Watford vs. Southampton

Credit:

Charlotte Wilson/Offside/Offside via Getty Images. Pictured: (R-L) Troy Deeney of Watford celebrates with Ismaila Sarr.

Jun 28, 2020, 10:10 AM EDT
  • Both teams are coming off losses and are at the bottom of the standings, but Watford could be more motivated given they're in the thick of a relegation battle.
  • Watford has been better than their record indicates at home, and there's usually a bunch of goals there: 60% of their home games have gone over the total.
  • My model gives this game a total of 2.85 goals, so I like the over 2.5 at plus money at DraftKings (+112).

Watford vs. Southampton Odds, Betting Picks

Watford odds +140 (BET NOW)
Southampton odds +210 (BET NOW)
Draw odds +225 (BET NOW)
Over/Under 2.5 (+112/-137)
(BET NOW)
Time Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Saturday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Sunday’s Premier match features two teams near the bottom of the table as Watford hosts Southampton. Both teams come into the match after losing on Thursday.

Watford is in the thick of a relegation battle and with matches against Chelsea, Man City, and Arsenal looming they cannot afford to drop any more points.

Southampton is comfortably 10 points above the relegation zone and have all but secured another season in the Premier League. With nothing to play for, it will interesting to see how motivated they are for this match.

Watford

The Hornets have been much better at home this season than their results have shown. Based on expected points, Watford should have earned five more points at home than they actually have (18 actual vs. 23.28 xPoints).

The Hornets also boast a +4.08 expected goal differential at Vicarage road, which ranks in the Top 10 of the Premier League. Vicarage Road has seen a lot of goals so far this season. Watford matches average a total of 3.03 expected goals per game. Which explains why 60% of their matches at home go over 2.5 goals.


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Watford typically lines up in a 4-2-3-1 formation, which is typically leads to a lot of goals. The formation provides Watford with multiple attacking options and encourages creativity from their attacking players.

The downside of lining up in the 4-2-3-1 is that it puts a lot of pressure on the defense and puts the fullbacks in a lot of one-on-one situations. It’s easy to see why Watford matches usually feature crooked numbers, with 2.96 expected goals scored per game when they play that formation.

Southampton

The Saints have put together one of their usual campaigns sitting near the middle of table as they have for the past five years. Southampton is one of the most underrated teams in the Premier League.

Based on expected points, Southampton should be in eighth place, rather than their current 14th place in the table. The Saints are led up top by Danny Ings who has flourished in his first season on the south coast. Ings has bagged 16 goals in 31 appearances and has an expected goal rate of 0.48 per 90 minutes.

Matches involving Southampton have seen a lot of goals so far this season with, 2.97 expected goals scored per game. That number get even bigger on the road where 3.04 expected goals are scored per game. With that high number of expected goals, its easy to see why 67% of their matches on the road have gone over 2.5 goals.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Analysis

Based on my model, I think the current line on DraftKings is correct, so I don’t see any value in backing either side in this match:

  • Watford projected odds: +150 (40.01% win probability)
  • Southampton projected odds: +186 (35.02% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +300 (24.97% win probability)
  • Watford projected xG: 1.48
  • Southampton projected xG: 1.37

Instead I am going to take a look at the total. I have a total of 2.85 goals being scored in this game, so I am going to back Over 2.5 goals at plus money.

Pick: Over 2.5 (+112)
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