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Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United Betting Preview (Oct. 23)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle United Betting Preview (Oct. 23) article feature image

Credit: Catherine Ivill, Getty. Christian Benteke goes in for a challenge against Alexandre Lacazette.

Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle Odds

Crystal Palace Odds +100
Newcastle Odds +280
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -115)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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A typical Crystal Palace-Newcastle matchup wouldn’t typically come with any hype, but that is not the case for Saturday’s contest.

After a Saudi Arabian-backed consortium completed its buyout of Newcastle, manager Steve Bruce parted ways with the club which is set to have an injection of funds. As the club searches for a new permanent manager, interim manager Graeme Jones will take the reins.

His job is an important one, as the club will be devastated if it can’t escape the relegation zone with its new uber-wealthy owners at the helm. The first step in ensuring safety comes this weekend, but it won’t be easy.

Crystal Palace Struggling to Get Over Line

While Palace only has two losses in the league, it also only has one win, and a number of points have been dropped from winning positions.

In its last three matches, Palace has conceded equalizers in the 95th minute twice. On Monday against Arsenal, Palace conceded 1.74 xG while amassing 0.49 of its own. The match presented a real opportunity to steal three points, but sloppy defending in the final minute of the game cost the Eagles.

Against Leicester, it was a very similar story. The question becomes, how can Palace finalize results? Palace’s 1.4 xGA/game number isn’t poor, but it does indicate that the Eagles are consistently conceding clear opportunities in the final third. Because they’re heavily outperforming their 0.8 xG number, results will get even worse if the lackluster defense doesn’t adjust.

This match will serve as an excellent opportunity to convert against an opponent that is struggling to play a full 90 minutes without having disastrous periods. Wilfred Zaha will return to the lineup after missing the Arsenal contest with an illness, and this is a significant boost for Palace.

Newcastle Needing Positive Result

The Magpies’ new era could not have gotten off to a better start last Sunday when Callum Wilson scored the opening goal against Tottenham in just two minutes.

It didn’t turn out to be the dream result that fans wanted, however, as Spurs went on to score three in the first half and take all of the points. The result left Newcastle in 19th with just three points through eight games. This is not surprising, as Newcastle ranks 18th in the league in xGA and 14th in xG, but it’ll have to turn it around fast to avoid being in a very tough spot.

Two absences will hinder Newcastle as Martin Dubravka continues to deal with an injury while Jonjo Shelvey was sent off in last week’s game against Tottenham.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As much as it would be fun to get behind a boyhood Newcastle fan taking charge of the team, Newcastle is simply in rough shape. With no ability to establish a defensive structure and a limited attack to ease the pressure, the Magpies should struggle to develop time and space on the ball.

However, for Palace, dominating the contest won’t be simple. Zaha’s return could serve as a catalyst for the Eagles’ attack, but Palace shouldn’t be expected to generate consistent scoring opportunities. As I noted earlier, Palace has been outperforming its xG throughout the year, and it will ultimately pay dividends in the scoreline.

I expect Jones to send his team out in a defensive setup that is designed to try and steal a victory rather than go guns blazing and try to outscore Palace. With all of these factors in play, I lean toward the under as the play with the best value. Palace is too susceptible to errors to be taken at this price, and it has to regress at some point. I think this will be that game.

Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-115)

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