Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Wolves Betting Preview (Oct. 23)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Wolves Betting Preview (Oct. 23) article feature image
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Alex Pantling/Getty Images. Pictured: Raphinha.

Leeds vs. Wolves Odds

Leeds Odds +160
Wolves Odds +175
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (-115 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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In a matchup of teams that are heading on different trajectories, the home side is being undervalued.

Wolves enters the matchup after three wins on the bounce, with its last coming in the last 10 minutes of the contest plus extra time. Bruno Lage’s side was down 2-0 to Aston Villa in the 80′ before storming back with three goals to take all three points. The win boosted Wolves up to tenth in the table.

Leeds lost its last outing against Southampton, and the Peacocks only amassed four points of the available 15 in Premier League contests throughout September. The poor stretch has Leeds dangerously close to the relegation zone in 17th, so this comes as a massive fixture for Marcelo Bielsa’s group.

Leeds Looking to Recover Semblance of Form

After a solid 2020-2021 campaign that saw Leeds finish ninth in its first season back in the English top flight, it hasn’t been able to find the same magic at the start of the season.

Leeds has a lone win in eight games played, and it currently is the worst team in the league in xGA, allowing 1.7 expected goals allowed per game. Offensively, the side is sixth in xG, but it hasn’t been able to compensate for a porous defense that has conceded 15 goals.

Fortunately, an injury boost is coming this weekend, with Raphinha likely to be available. The winger could provide support in the attacking third of the pitch, and that could be vital in providing an outlet for a back line that will have its hands full with Adama Traore all match.

With Kalvin Phillips, Junior Firpo and Patrick Bamford still unavailable, the return of one or both players would be vital.

Wolves Enter Match With Confidence

It’s not often that a team of Wolves’ caliber is able to rattle off three consecutive victories, but the squad has done just that. Wins in 4-of-5 Premier League outings has Wolves four points out of a Champions League position. If Wolves can secure a fourth consecutive road win at Elland Road, it would set a Premier League record for the club.

Wolves has been able to win games in numerous ways, which is a good sign that it can adapt to different circumstances. Against Villa, Wolves was able to recover from an impossible deficit to find three points, while it produced clean sheets against Watford and Wolves to garner victories.

The most encouraging statistic has to be Wolves’ xGA, which currently sits at fourth-best in the Premier League. Wolves is also producing 1.3 xG per game, good for ninth in the league. Those numbers go to show that this run isn’t a fluke, and you can expect a sturdy defensive side throughout the year.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Despite the current run of form that Wolves is in, I believe that the value lies on the other end of the pitch.

Wolves has been able to produce better results throughout the year, and it’s hard to argue that they’ve been flukes given the side’s high marks in advanced metrics. But Leeds comes into this match in a desperate state, and the return of Raphinha could serve as a major boost.

A regression to the mean is due from Wolves, and in a match between two teams that should finish in a similar position in the table, getting the home side at near pick ’em value is a quality price. Offer yourself a bit of insurance and opt for the draw no bet line.

Pick: Leeds — Draw No Bet (-120)

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