Brentford vs. Brighton Betting Odds & Pick: Are Bees Due for Some Regression?

Brentford vs. Brighton Betting Odds & Pick: Are Bees Due for Some Regression? article feature image
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Eddie Keogh/Getty Images. Pictured: Shane Duffy and Yves Bissouma (L).

  • Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion square off in Saturday's Premier League (10 a.m. ET, Peacock Premium).
  • The betting market sees Brentford, in its first season in England's top flight in almost 80 years, about even with Brighton in this match.
  • BJ Cunningham explains why he likes Brighton to get a result.

Brentford vs. Brighton Odds

Brentford Odds +185
Brighton Odds +175
Draw +205
Over/Under 2.5 (+145 / -180)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Two very trendy teams meet up in London for a match to decide who is for real and who isn’t at the start of the Premier League season.

Brentford is off to a flying start to their first season in English top flight since the 1946-47 campaign, earning five points in their first three matches. The Bees have shown that they have no fear with their style of play and will constantly keep going forward, despite how open it leaves them at the back.

However, that may be a problem against one of the best teams in the Premier League a season ago at creating high-quality chances.

Brighton is also off to a high-flying start, picking up six points through their first three matches. That’s a big step up from last season when the Seagulls had the unluckiest season in Premier League history. They are due for a lot of positive regression, and a matchup against a high-pressing team like Brentford is a dream matchup for Graham Potter’s side.

Brentford Due For Scoring Regression

Brentford are unbeaten through their first three matches and have looked great ever since promotion. They’ve out-created their opponents 3.73 xG to 2.06 xG and have allowed the second fewest expected goals behind only Manchester City.

Brentford play somewhat similar to that of Leeds in the fact that they play high-tempo, high-intensity, “heavy-metal” football. It’s a very vertical style that condenses the middle, allowing wingers and fullbacks to get space on the outside in their 4-3-3 formation. Through the first three matches, Brentford have the third most pressures and the third best pressure success rate so far this season.

However, even with that high pressure rate and winning the expected goals battle, their offense hasn’t been that amazing. They rank in the bottom half of the Premier League in shot-creating actions, touches inside the opponents’ final third and touches inside the opponents penalty area, per fbref.com.

They will be going up against one of the best defenses in the Premier League last season by expected goals, so I think some offensive regression will be coming for the Bees on Saturday.

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Brighton’s Style of Play Should Shine

I’ve mentioned it at nauseam, but Brighton are due for a lot of positive regression, considering they had a +13.91 xGD last season, which was fifth best in the Premier League, but they somehow finished in 16th place. So, even though they were dominated in their last match against Everton, this is still a top-10 club.

This is a fantastic matchup for Brighton because the Seagulls’ build-up of play was unbelievable last season.  They play very close to the same formation as Chelsea, which is a 3-4-2-1, but sometimes they play it as a 1-2 up top with two strikers.

Brighton’s style of play works incredibly well against high-press teams. Last season, opposing teams only had a 26.1% successful pressure rate against the Seagulls (per fbref.com), which was the second best mark behind only Manchester City.

A good barometer for this match is looking back on how Brighton did against Leeds last season, since Brentford plays a very similar high-pressing style. Brighton swept Leeds by a combined score of 3-0 and out created them 3.44 xG to 0.98 xG.

Betting Analysis & Pick

I think Brighton are severely undervalued in this spot on the road. Their success against the high press, along with the fact they are due for such a large amount of positive regression gives them a distinct advantage over newly-promoted Brentford.

Since I have Brighton projected at +111, I think there is plenty of value on their draw no bet line of -115 and would play it up to -135 odds.

Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (-115)

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