Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Newcastle United vs. Watford Betting Preview (Jan. 15)
Joe Prior/Visionhaus. Pictured: Watford standout Moussa Sissoko.
Newcastle vs. Watford Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-150 / +110)|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 10 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Newcastle United welcomes Watford to St. James Park on Saturday in a vital match between teams fighting for Premier League survival.
The Magpies enter the contest in the relegation zone with just 11 points, but a victory in this game would lift them above the visitors in the league table. For the Hornets, they’re currently on a seven-game losing run, posting a -10 goal difference during that span.
However, the history of the fixture is positive for Watford, as Newcastle has just one win in the last 10 EPL games against Hornets.
Let’s dive into this match to see where the betting value lies in this relegation six-pointer.
Newcastle Make Moves for Trippier, Wood
Newcastle’s new, rich owners are starting to spend the cash in the January transfer window, with the arrivals of English right-back Kieran Trippier and former Burnley striker Chris Wood.
There are still a few more weeks to add to the current squad, and more additions will be needed to keep the Magpies in the English top flight.
Newcastle has been terrible across the board, ranking toward the bottom of the league in multiple categories like expected goals (16.7), xG allowed per match (1.81) and big scoring chances conceded (36), according to fbref.com.
To make matters worse, striker Callum Wilson, who leads the Magpies with six league goals, is injured and unavailable for this important match.
Watford Back to Poor, Disappointing Form
While there might have been a new manager bounce when he was hired, Watford has sunk back into terrible form under Claudio Ranieri over the last couple of months.
I mentioned the seven-game losing run the Hornets are currently on, but the advanced metrics paint an even worse picture.
Over the last seven league games, Watford holds a -7.5 expected goals difference and has allowed an average of 1.99 xG per match during that stretch.
Unlike the opposition, the Hornets do have their top goalscorer available, with Nigerian attacker Emmanuel Dennis electing to stay in England instead of heading off to the Africa Cup of Nations.
Betting Analysis & Pick
When we look at the odds at BetMGM, Newcastle is slated as the home favorite at even money, while the total is posted at 2.5 goals.
I’m not running to the window to back either side on their current forms, but I do see value in the total.
My best bet for this match is the total staying under 2.5 goals at +110 odds. If you have a sportsbook offering the Asian Handicap line of under 2.75 goals at anything better than -130, I like that option as well, but it’s hard to turn down the better price.
Yes, I know these are likely two of the three worst EPL defenses, but you look deeper, the high totals for these teams have been dependent on their opponents scoring the goals and not them.
Over their last five matches, both Watford and Newcastle are averaging just 0.74 expected goals per game. The Magpies, who will be without their top scorer, even failed to score against third-division side Cambridge United in FA Cup action last weekend.
You then look at how these squads have fared against sides in the bottom five of the league. The same total would have cashed in all four of Newcastle’s matches against Watford, Leeds United, Norwich City and Burnley, while under 2.5 goals went 1-1 in the Hornets’ games against similar competition.
When teams at the bottom of the table meet in the second half of the season, these matches can play out to cagey, low-scoring games. Once you add in two sides that struggle to consistently create chances with key attackers missing, this bet has great value at a plus price.
Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (+110)