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Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Chelsea Stun Manchester City in EPL Clash?

Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Prediction, Preview: Can Chelsea Stun Manchester City in EPL Clash? article feature image
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Matt McNulty – Manchester City/Manchester City FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester City stars Raheem Sterling, left, and Kevin De Bruyne.

  • Manchester City welcomes Chelsea to Etihad Stadium for Saturday's huge Premier League showdown.
  • The front-running Cityzens, who are currently -145 moneyline favorites, have won 11 consecutive EPL matches and 14 of their last 16 games overall.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the meeting below and details why he likes a Single Game Parlay at plus money.

Man City vs. Chelsea Odds

Man City Odds -145
Chelsea Odds +400
Draw +290
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +105)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds updated as of Saturday morning via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

World soccer powers collide bright and early Saturday when Manchester City welcomes Chelsea to Etihad Stadium for a battle of Premier League giants.

The Cityzens have an ultra-firm grip on the EPL crown, sitting 10 points clear of the Blues. And to say the Cityzens have dominated would be an understatement. Manchester City has won 11 consecutive league matches, as well as 14 of its last 16 games across all competitions. Its last EPL setback came in a 2-0 home loss to Crystal Palace way back on Oct. 30 at the Etihad.

As for Chelsea, this meeting of the league’s top-two sides is a must-win situation for manager Thomas Tuchel and his crew. A draw here would hurt, but a defeat would effectively end any shot at making a second-half title run.

Oddsmakers have made Manchester City a sizable -145 moneyline favorite at BetMGM, with underdog Chelsea at +400 ML odds ahead of this meeting. The draw sits at +290, which seems to be spot on considering the fact the Cityzens have only three ties in 31 matches across all competitions.

That said, let’s see it we can find some betting value in this high-profile clash.

Questions Surround Man City Player Availability

If you’re looking for the poster child for “first class,” Manchester City would be emblazoned on every poster on every street corner around the globe. In my opinion, manager Pep Guardiola has the best club on the planet that carries an impeccable résumé to back up my humble opinion.

And not only do the Cityzens take care of business in their league games, they triumph in dominant fashion. They’ve scored at least two goals in nine of their last 11 EPL fixtures, highlighted by a 7-0 shellacking of Leeds United and 6-3 rout of Leicester City. Sandwiched between those December wins was a 4-0 shutout against Newcastle United, meaning they scored 17 goals in three matches during a 12-day stretch in the festive period.

So, how insane was that run? Three teams — Burnley (16), Wolves (14) and Norwich City (9) — haven’t scored that many goals the entire season.

When it comes to the advanced metrics, Manchester City is just as dominate in the data as it is on the pitch. The Cityzens have racked up a 49.2 expected goals and conceded a paltry 14.4 xGA, generating a stunning +34.8 xGDiff and +1.66 xGDiff per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

Just to put how good those numbers are in perspective, only Liverpool is a fraction better in the xG column (49.3) than Manchester City. Defensively, no one comes close, though. Tottenham, which sits in sixth place, is the next closest in xGA (18.9) in the 20-team league. Everyone else is north of 20 in the category, led by Chelsea and Liverpool tied at 20.3 xGA in a tie for third place.

Title Hopes Slipping Away for Chelsea

We still have a little less than half the season remaining in the English top flight, but the Blues’ title hopes are slowly drifting away. And the biggest reason they’re double digits behind the Cityzens is simple: too many ties.

Chelsea has settled for draws and one-point efforts in four of its last five EPL games, which simply won’t get it done. Finishing level with Liverpool is one thing, but walking away from stalemates with Everton, Wolves and Brighton & Hove Albion just won’t cut it.

Unlike its counterpart, Manchester City just keeps winning … and winning … and (did I mention) … winning. Another victory here would give the front-running Cityzens a dozen wins in a row in league play. As the saying goes in football, you can’t expect to win games if you keep kicking field goals when the other team is scoring touchdowns.

As for their statistics, Chelsea has amassed 38.7 xG that’s good for third overall, but obviously far away from its counterpart. The club does have an impressive +18.3 xGDiff, which puts it behind Manchester City and Liverpool.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

It might sound a little dramatic, but this really is a do-or-die situation for Chelsea. Bottom line, it’s three points or bust for Tuchel and the Blues even though we still have more than four months left in the season.

And because we have a desperate side facing an opponent on complete cruise control, I have found it difficult to back either side in this affair. Throw in the questions surrounding Man City’s player availability and I want absolutely no part of picking a straight winner.

Instead. I’m heading to my favorite wager — the Single Game Parlay — and backing both teams to score, combined with the total staying under 4.5 goals as my top selection. We’re getting ripe +135 odds at BetMGM on this betting angle, which is where I’m finding the most value ahead of this huge match.

Pick: Single Game Parlay — Both Teams to Score (Yes) & Total Under 4.5 Goals (+135)

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