Sunday Premier League Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions, Preview, Best Bets: Can Mohamed Salah, Liverpool Take Down Everton in EPL Clash?
John Powell/Liverpool FC via Getty Images. Pictured: Liverpool star Mohamed Salah.
- Liverpool hosts Everton in Sunday’s crucial Premier League showdown.
- The Reds are huge favorites against the Toffees, who are in the middle of a relegation battle in the English top flight.
- Ian Quillen breaks down the match below gives his top pick tied to Liverpool from the props market.
Liverpool vs. Everton Odds
|Over/Under||3.5 (+112 / -140)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds updated as of Sunday morning via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
The Merseyside derby is always big. And Sunday’s edition could help decide who wins the Premier League and who gets relegated from it.
Liverpool can move back within a point of league leader Manchester City with a second victory this season over its most nearby rival in this meeting at Anfield. The Reds are unbeaten at home in the league, plus they’e unbeaten with 10 wins in their last 12 EPL fixtures.
Everton is usually the little brother, but rarely has the gulf in class been so large. The Toffees could find themselves in the relegation zone by the end of the weekend. They enter one point in front of 18th-place Burnley, which has already played one match more and will play another earlier on the day’s card.
Liverpool cruised to a 4-1 win in the previous meeting at Goodison Park back in December. Everton won its first game at Anfield in the 21st century in its last visit, coming in a 2-0 win before an empty stadium back February of 2021.
Salah Finding Mojo Deep in EPL Season
The Reds enter the derby on the heels of one of their best regular performances of the season, which came via a 4-0 demolition of Manchester United last weekend.
Mohamed Salah recorded a brace for his fourth multi-goal performance of the campaign and his first goals of any sort in more than a month.
That could be good news for the home side, given Salah has scored in bunches. On four previous occasions this season, the Egyptian international has strung together three or more consecutive games with goals.
Not that the Reds have lacked for scoring even with Salah in a relative dry spell. Their 83 goals scored and plus-61 goal difference are the best in the EPL, putting them of Manchester City’s 75 scored and +55 differential overall.
Incredibly, manager Jürgen Klopp’s men have produced a +46.5 expected-goals differential and still outperformed it by more than 16 goals.
If there’s anything to worry about for the hosts, it’s the possibility — as odd as it seems — of overlooking their derby foes. The first leg of its Champions League home semifinal versus Villareal looms on Wednesday, as Liverpool continues to take aim at a possible quadruple. The Reds already the League Cup holders, plus they will face Chelsea in the FA Cup final.
Everton Still Struggling Mightily on Road
Not only is Everton in dangerous territory following its 1-1 midweek home draw to Leicester City, the club has been the league’s worst away side.
The Toffees’ six points beyond Goodison Park is even lower than the three points hapless Norwich City has taken. It’s also an odd reversal from the 2020-2021 campaign, when a then Carlo Ancelotti-managed side was the league’s fourth-best club on the road.
Incoming boss Frank Lampard has yet to earn so much as a draw away since taking over earlier this year. However, there’s some subtle signs an improvement there could be coming.
The Toffees have at least found the net and been within a goal in their last two EPL contests, which were a 2-1 loss at West Ham and 3-2 defeat at Burnley. They also created a combined 1.7 non-penalty xG in those games.
While that’s not impressive, it’s an incremental step forward from a combined 1.1 xG from Lampard’s first three away EPL fixtures.
Center back Yerry Mina has returned from an extended injury layoff, but striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin is expected to be out again. As poor as Calvert-Lewin has been this season, the most important impact of his absence could be on where Richarlison plays.
Everton was poor through the opening hour against Leicester, with the Brazilian deputizing for Calvert-Lewin. The Toffees improved when he was allowed to inhabit his more natural role on the wing later in the game, from which he ultimately scored a late equalizer.
BJ Cunningham’s EPL Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
Everton’s away form might eventually come around. Realistically, it probably won’t be Sunday.
That said, the Toffees seem more mentally locked in than a Manchester United side going through the motions during a transition period. So, the Reds rout might not be as comprehensive as expected.
Klopp also has Wednesday to think about if he gets a comfortable lead, which could lead to an earlier exit for some of his stars. And Mina’s second game back should make Everton’s back line meaningfully better than it has been most of the season.
Of Liverpool’s 16 home league fixtures, five have been two-goal victories. All five of of those have come against teams currently ninth or lower in the table, including all three games against teams entering the weekend beneath Everton in the standings.
So, I’m playing Liverpool to win by exactly two goals at +300 odds and an implied 25% probability as my top pick.
Pick: Tie — Handicap with tie — Liverpool -2 (+300)
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