Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions | Bournemouth vs Man United Preview
David Horton/Getty. Pictured: David Brooks.
Bournemouth vs Man United Odds
Bournemouth Odds | +475 |
Man United Odds | -200 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-188 / +150) |
| Both Teams to Score (Yes/No) | (-150 / +110) |
| Odds via bet365. Get the latest soccer odds here. | |
Manchester United look to continue to hold off Liverpool for top four spot when they travel to the south coast to take on Bournemouth.
The Cherries have officially secured safety and will be playing in the Premier League next season. Bournemouth have had a big time surge over the second half of the season and during that surge they've beaten the likes of Liverpool and Tottenham, so they are definitely capable of upsetting Manchester United. Even though they theoretically have nothing to play for, it's the last home match of the season and it's against a big six club, so Bournemouth will be up for this one.
Manchester United are trying to hold off a furious Liverpool charge to hold onto fourth place and a coveted Champions League spot next season. After back to back losses to Brighton and West Ham away from home, United got a much needed 2-0 win against Wolves at Old Trafford. The problem that has existed for Manchester United all season is they've been quite poor away from home, and it could cost them a top four spot if they don't get all three points on Saturday.
Bournemouth in Spoiler Position
Bournemouth have survived relegation and are on the beach, so naturally the price on Manchester United is inflated.
Since we returned from the World Cup, the Bournemouth offense has been incredibly dangerous in counterattacking opportunities. Over the last 17 matches, Bournemouth have created 23.2 xG, which is top 10 in the Premier League. They also have only scored 19 goals off those chances, so they’ve actually under-performed.
Bournemouth have also taken the blueprint that has made Brentford so successful by putting a big time emphasis not only in transitional opportunities, but taking advantage of set pieces as well. The Cherries are third in xG per set piece, creating 10.6 xG on 98 set piece opportunities.
They have not been good defensively, as they’ve allowed 69.4 xG on the season. However, they’ve actually been running pretty poorly lately. In their last five matches, they’ve conceded 10 goals off of 6.7 xG.
Bournemouth have also been much better at the Vitality Stadium than they've been on the road this season, only having a -5.9 xGD at home versus -18.4 on the road.
Man United
Erik Ten Hag is demanding that his team play out of the back, but that has come with varied success, especially lately. Not only is David de Gea terrible with the ball at his feet, but their best ball progressor from the back line, Lisandro Martinez, is out injured. So, the teams that have given Manchester United problems are the teams willing to press them high to try and disrupt their build up play. The matches against Sevilla and Newcastle are a perfect example of this, so Bournemouth are going to need to press Manchester United high if they want to cause them problems.
The Manchester United attack has been far from elite this year. In fact, they've scored fewer goals than both Fulham and Brentford. The problem is they've become too reliant on Marcus Rashford in attack. Rashford is an incredible forward, but he's over-performing his xG scoring 16 goals off of 13.6 xG. The crazy part is Rashford isn't even leading Manchester United in shots per 90 mintues, Antony is, but all of his shots are low quality chances from outside the box.
Anthony Martial and Jadon Sancho have been in and out of form, so it's basically just Rashford and Bruno Fernandes carrying the attack at this point. Rashford is currently questionable to play in this match and if he doesn’t that would be a big blow to the United attack.
Manchester United's defense is what is keeping them inside the top four. The Red Devils are only allowing 1.26 npxG per 90 minutes and have been very good defensively against teams in the bottom half of the table. Having someone like Casemiro in the middle of the pitch has been a game changer for Manchester United, as they're only allowing 1.08 xG per 90 minutes with him on the pitch this season. With that being said, Casemiro is their only good transition defender. The Red Devils are 19th in final third to penalty box conversion rate allowed, which is really concerning going up against a Bournemouth team that thrives in transition.
Bournemouth vs Man United Pick
Manchester United are vastly inflated here because they need to win to keep their spot in the top four, while Bournemouth have nothing left to play for. However, with it being the final home match of the season and a chance to upset mighty Manchester United, I think you'll see an inspired effort from the Cherries.
The question marks surrounding the Manchester United attack are very real, especially if Rashford does not play. Ten Hag's build up structure is showing signs of being elite, but not having the right players available have caused Manchester United to struggle in that area. Additionally, United have been poor away from Old Trafford this season, putting up a -4.6 xGD.
With the line on Manchester United being inflated, I like the value on Bournemouth +1 at +100.
Pick: Bournemouth +1 (+100 via DraftKings)
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