Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Everton vs. Manchester United (Saturday, Nov. 7)

Manchester United at Everton Odds

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Two teams looking to get off the schneid will meet at Goodison Park when Everton host Manchester United on Saturday morning.

After a hot start that saw them finish October on top of the table, Everton have lost two matches on the spin and are winless in their last three contests. The Toffees have scored just one goal in their last two matches and have not picked up a point during Richarlison’s three-game suspension.

Manchester United have been an a roller coaster this season. The Red Devils are in 15th-place (though they have a game in hand on most of the league) with seven points and a -4 goal differential. United have lost two in a row across all competitions and will be on short rest after losing to Istanbul Basaksehir in Turkey on Wednesday.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Everton

The Toffees have come back down to earth.

Carlo Ancelotti’s side have turned in three poor performances in a row and have just one point since the last international break ended. The Toffees are still within three points of Liverpool at the top of the table but Everton’s dip in form in October has left everybody wondering whether their first four games were just an early-season blip.

After earning a lucky draw against Liverpool, Everton have been outplayed by Southampton and Newcastle in back-to-back losses. Southampton are a good side and surging up the table, but the defeat to the Magpies was peculiar as Ancelotti set his side up very defensively against a team that doesn’t really offer much going forward.

The Italian selected five center midfielders to fill out his starting XI at St. James’ Park and the Toffees never looked settled. Everton were without Richarlison, Lucas Digne, James Rodriguez and Seamus Coleman against Newcastle but they were still favorites to win the match, so seeing them lose the expected goals battle, 2.5-1.2, was disappointing.

The Toffees will get Digne and James back for Saturday, so you can expect a more dynamic starting XI against United, but Ancelotti has had a whale of a time trying to find someone to replace Richarlison on the left side of Everton’s front-three.

Everton’s defense has also endured a dip in form over the past three weeks, allowing 1.8 xG/match over their last three contests. That is a big jump after they allowed just 0.69 xG/match in their first four games.

Man United

Manchester United are off to a baffling start in 2020/21. Sitting in 15th-place with seven points from six games, the Red Devils have been all over the map in both the Premier League and the Champions League.

United have lost their last two matches, a 1-0 defeat at home against Arsenal and a 2-1 loss away to Istanbul Basaksehir, but they spent the two weeks before that defeating PSG, RB Leipzig and earning a 0-0 draw against Chelsea. Those results came on the heels of a 6-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur. Who do these guys think they are?

Overall, the numbers don’t paint a pretty picture for Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s men, but over half of their total xG allowed came in two matches — the loss to Tottenham and a very lucky win over Brighton in which they allowed 2.98 xG and saw the post keep out five shots from the Seagulls.

As hard as it is to find a thread of consistency from this group, you can credit the United defense for playing well over the last month. The Red Devils haven’t let any of their last three Premier League opponents (Newcastle, Chelsea, Arsenal) eclipse the 1.0 xG mark and have only allowed five goals across their last six matches in all competitions.

Although Solskjær has no real injury concerns outside of Alex Telles, his side could be dealing with some fatigue issues. Solskjær voiced his displeasure with the Premier League for scheduling United in the early Saturday spot since his team are coming off a trip to Istanbul. The Norwegian has a point as this is Man U’s third game since Sunday and sixth game since Oct. 17.

Man United vs. Everton Betting Pick

It is tough to get a good read on either side in this contest, but I think the odds are a bit long on Everton considering the schedule advantage they have over United on Saturday morning. I don’t expect Solskjær to rest any players since the international break is looming, but three matches in seven days and a midweek jaunt to Turkey is a lot to ask of a side that still seems to lack depth.

Everton have trended down in their last three matches but the return of Digne and James should provide a big boost to a team that was desperate for some creativity last week.

The listed odds imply that Everton win this match 33.2% of the time. I think that is a little low. There really isn’t that much that separates these two starting XI’s and the Toffees have a clear schedule advantage, especially since Digne and James didn’t play last week.

I’d play Everton down to +180.

The Bet: Everton +188

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