Leeds United vs. Newcastle Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Value on Over (Wednesday, Dec. 16)
Newcastle United/Getty Images. Pictured: Callum Wilson.
- With just one win in their last six matches, Marcelo Bielsa's Leeds United will be desperate for a win against overachieving Newcastle on Wednesday afternoon.
- The bookmakers have made Leeds odds-on favorites, but BJ Cunningham feels the best way to bet this match is to target the over/under:
Leeds United vs. Newcastle Odds
|Leeds United Odds||-127 [BET NOW]|
|Newcastle Odds||+360 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+300 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-132/+106) [BET NOW]|
|Time||1:00 p.m. ET|
Leeds and Newcastle meet on Wednesday for a middle-of-the-table clash that could end up having a big impact on the race to stay in the Premier League.
After a fantastic start to their return to the Premier League, Leeds United have fallen on hard times. They’ve lost four of their last six matches, including a 2-1 defeat last Friday to West Ham after going in front 1-0 after six minutes. Leeds only have one win at Elland Road so far this season, so they are desperate to get things back on track.
Newcastle hope they have righted the ship after beating West Brom, 2-1, at home over the weekend. However, the Magpies season has been a roller-coaster so far. An upset win at Leeds could be the ticket to perhaps steer the ship in the right direction more consistently.
Manager Marcelo Bielsa’s style of play isn’t for the faint of heart. Leeds United plays essentially a full court press at all times. Whenever the opposing team has the ball, the entire Leeds team presses forward in hopes of winning the ball and starting a counter attack.
It sounds great on paper, but why more teams don’t employ this style of play is it often leaves you exposed at the back. That has led to Leeds being involved in a ton of high scoring matches, as on average 3.53 expected goals (xG) in total are scored per match.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
When Bielsa’s style of play started working at the beginning of the season, everyone hailed him as a genius for having the stones to not change his philosophy. However, over their last six matches, Leeds have allowed 2.18 xG per match, which is by far the highest rate in the Premier League over that time span.
Good fortune was the story of Newcastle’s 2019-20 campaign. They finished 13th, but the Magpies had the worst expected goal differential in the Premier League at -30.54. Their actual goal differential was -20, showing that they were one of the luckiest teams in the English top flight last season.
Newcastle have improved going forward thanks to the arrival of Callum Wilson from Bournemouth. The striker has already bagged seven goals in his first nine appearances for Newcastle, and he’s generating 0.77 xG per 90 minutes. Leeds’s shaky defense will likely create a ton of opportunities for Wilson and the rest of Newcastle’s attacking players.
Projections and Pick
Given Leeds’ all-or-nothing style, I think we are going to see another high-scoring affair. Newcastle isn’t one of the higher-scoring teams in the league, but they should have plenty of high quality chances in this match.
Since I have the total projected at 2.82, I am going to back Over 3 goals at +133 (DraftKings).
Pick: Over 3 goals (+133)