Premier League Odds, Predictions, Picks | Best Bets for Bournemouth vs Man United, Arsenal vs Aston Villa & More
Via Daniel Chesterton/Getty Images. Pictured: Bukayo Saka of Arsenal celebrates after scoring their third goal to make the score 0-3 during the Premier League match between Burnley FC and Arsenal FC at Turf Moor on February 17, 2024 in Burnley, England.
Here's everything you need to know about Premier League predictions and odds for Burnley vs Brighton, Bournemouth vs Manchester United, Arsenal vs Aston Villa, and Chelsea vs Everton. BJ Cunningham and Anthony Dabbundo are here to take you through the upcoming matches and offer up their best bets on the slate.
Cunningham and Dabbundo, who are part of the Wondergoal podcast crew, will be guiding you on the weekend Premier League fixtures and delivering their favorite picks along the way.
If you'd like to see picks from Cunningham and Dabbundo during the season for all UCL action and all five European leagues, follow them in the Action Network App.
If you'd like to see our projections for the Premier League matches and a number of other leagues, you can find them here.
Here are our weekend Premier League odds & predictions.
Premier League Odds & Predictions
| Burnley Odds | +260 |
| Brighton Odds | +100 |
| Draw | +270 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
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Dabbundo: Burnley have the second-fewest shots attempted, lowest attacking set piece efficiency and the second-lowest expected threat created in the Premier League this season. No team has a lower xG per shot or longer average shot distance than Vincent Kompany's side. Burnley had attempted to be a possession-first team in the lower half of the table, but their inability to dynamically attack defenses even when they do break through pressure has left them quite poor in chance creation this season.
Kompany has adjusted his side's play style in the second half of the season to try to better cope with the talent deficit his club faces in most matches in this league. They're more passive and possession averse in the second half of the season. It has improved the defense considerably – Burnley are in the top half in xG conceded since 2024 began. It also has left the attack mostly anemic at threatening in a wide-open Premier League. While goal scoring is way up across the English top flight, more than three goals per match on average, Burnley have averaged 0.89 xG and scored 0.83 goals per match in the last three months of the PL.
If you only count 11-on-11 minutes in the new year, Brighton have averaged 1.08 xG per 90. That's third-worst in the Premier League. Roberto De Zerbi's tactical approach has lacked the continuity and fluidity that romped the English top flight last season.
I'd bet the under 3 up to -130 and expect Brighton to continue their slog through the remaining matches in this season. For as much as Brighton play a brand of soccer that's easy on the eye and the passing range and technical quality is exquisite, the lack of dynamic chance creation is reminiscent of the end of the Graham Potter era, when Brighton was an under machine.
Pick: Under 3 (-130 or better)
| Bournemouth Odds | +137 |
| Manchester United Odds | +170 |
| Draw | +280 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -225 / +175 |
Cunningham: Manchester United defensively have been terrible and Ten Hag doesn’t seem to want to change their structure any time soon. Bournemouth are likely going to play the ball long via goal kicks as opposed to building out of the back, which is a problem for United because their structure is not set up to win a lot of second balls or defend long passes at a high level.
Bournemouth’s aggressive high press is what won them the match against Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford back in December. In that match, they did a fantastic job generating those high turnovers, but most importantly they turned those high turnovers into dangerous chances, as two of their three goals came off of high turnovers.
Manchester United have to play in these up and down matches now because of their inability control matches, which means they are conceding a massive amount of shots and chances. Since the beginning of February, Manchester United are allowing 2.43 xG per 90 minutes and 23.3 shots per match.
I have Bournemouth projected for 2.1 goals for this match, so I like the value on their team total.
Pick:Bournemouth Team Total Over 1.5 (-125 via BetRivers)
| Arsenal Odds | -350 |
| Aston Villa Odds | +900 |
| Draw | +475 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -200 / +162 |
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Dabbundo: Arsenal may be in the midst of their Champions League clash with Bayern Munich, but the Gunners are the more rested team for Sunday’s matchup. Not only do Arsenal have the deeper squad, but they have two extra days of rest and are at home when compared to opponents Aston Villa. Villa will be without key midfielder Douglas Luiz and the Clarets have really struggled against top tier competition of late.
They had an uncompetitive 4-1 defeat to Manchester City in a tough midweek spot a couple weeks ago, lost 4-0 to Tottenham and then blew a 2-0 lead against Brentford last Saturday in a 3-3 draw. Their defense has seen major fall off in the second half. Since Jan. 1, only Luton Town and Manchester United are conceding more expected goals per match in the Premier League than Aston Villa.
Villa have allowed at least 1.5 expected goals in 11 consecutive Premier League matches. Even when facing lowly Luton, Sheffield United or a very shorthanded Wolves team without their three best attackers, the Villans have been exposed defensively. Arsenal struggle most against teams with solid defenses who can limit Arsenal’s explosiveness and turn the match into a bit of a stalemate. Villa’s defensive approach will leave plenty of space for the Gunners to exploit in behind, and Villa’s attack will struggle to create against an elite Arsenal defense that has conceded 0.66 xG per match at home in the league this year.
Arsenal will drop points in the future in this title race, but this home spot against Villa with extra rest isn’t one of them. I’d back Arsenal to win going away in a controlled multi-goal victory.
Pick: Arsenal -1.5 (-121 via BetRivers)
| Chelsea Odds | -150 |
| Everton Odds | +400 |
| Draw | +300 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
Cunningham: What we know about Chelsea right now is they are not a team that is successful breaking down passive defensive blocks and would much rather be playing in transition. They are coming off maybe the most alarming offensive performance of the season, only taking six shots and creating 0.2 xG against one of the worst Premier League defenses we’ve ever seen.
Everton have become more of a high block than a mid block these days, which makes it very difficult for teams that are not great at progressing the ball through the final third. So, Everton force a ton of high turnovers, but by nature they are a very passive team. Even with all of the bad performances, Everton are still fourth in npxG allowed, have allowed the second-fewest big scoring chances, and have the third-most ball recoveries, which is an indication of just how hard them work out of possession.
If you think about Chelsea and how they operate in possession, Cole Palmer is really the only guy on their team that has the ability to exploit the space in between the lines or find space in the middle of Everton’s defensive block, so what is likely going to happen is the ball is going to go out wide and Chelsea is going to have to beat Everton with crosses.
Everton won the previous meeting 2-0 and held Chelsea to just 0.9 xG on 16 shots with nine of those shots coming outside the box and not a single shot having an xG rating over 0.15.
I only have Chelsea projected at +101, so I like the value on Everton +0.5 at +125.
Pick:Everton +0.5(+125 via Caesars)
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