Premier League Predictions, Picks | Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham Preview
Sebastian Frej/Getty. Pictured: Lewis Dunk.
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Fulham Odds
Brighton & Hove Albion Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (-135 / +110)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-135 / +110)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Brighton and Hove Albion and Fulham meet at the Amex to break the deadlock between them as they both have 35 points in the Premier League table.
The Seagulls drew with Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park last weekend, but they were very unlucky to do so. Roberto De Zerbi’s regime has completely taken over at Brighton and the Seagulls have now become one the most dangerous offensive attacks in the Premier League.
Fulham have been playing really well out of the World Cup break, winning five of their last eight matches in the Premier League. Marco Silva’s team is dead even with Brighton on points, but the underlying numbers show a drastic gap between these two at the moment.
Brighton in Excellent Position
This is about as good as spot as you can ask for if you are Brighton. The Seagulls are an offensive juggernaut under De Zerbi, averaging 1.85 xG per match. They have created 10.2 xG over their last five matches, and they’ve also been incredible at the Amex this season.
Additionally, Brighton have been dominant against non-big six sides, as they have a staggering +8.6 xGD. The last time they faced Fulham they lost 2-1, but they won the xG battle 1.4 to 0.7.
Brighton are so good at setting pressing traps, drawing defenses out of position and then playing right through the middle of the pitch with one touch passing to get the ball inside your final third in an instant. It’s why they are one of the top teams in the Premier League in average possession and build up completion percentage.
Fulham are in the middle of the Premier League in disrupting opponents’ build up play, so Brighton should have no problem getting the ball into the final third.
Fulham Due For Regression
The Fulham defense has got to regress at some point and they are way overdue for . Since the World Cup break Fulham have only conceded four goals off of 10.1 xG. They have also allowed the most big scoring chances and the most shots inside the six-yard box in the Premier League.
Offensively they are pretty much a one-trick pony. Fulham love to get the ball into wide areas and swing crosses into their main man Aleksander Mitrovic, who has scored 11 of the club’s 31 goals this season. Fulham are completing the second-most crosses into the penalty area of anyone in the Premier League, but outside of that they are a very below-average offense.
Fulham are ninth in shots per 90 minutes, 13th in big scoring chances and ninth in box entries. They also have the lowest percentage of their attacks coming from the middle of the pitch. Against Brighton, that isn’t really going to work given their ability to defend in wide areas and also defend crosses better than anyone in the Premier League.
Brighton vs Fulham Pick
This is a great spot to back Brighton with a top-five offense in the Premier League going up against one of the worst defenses that is due for a lot of negative regression.
Brighton should have won the reverse fixture at Craven Cottage, so I like them to get their revenge this time around at the Amex.
I have Brighton projected at -205, so I love the value on them at -150.
Pick: Brighton ML (-150)
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