PSG vs Nice Odds, Picks, Predictions | Ligue 1 Match Preview
Jonathan Moscrop/Getty. Pictured: Achraf Hakimi.
PSG vs Nice Odds
| PSG Odds | -223 |
| Nice Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over / Under | 2.5 -175 / +137 |
PSG look to make it three wins in a row domestically before their Champions League match on Tuesday against Dortmund.
The French champions have been busy this summer, bringing in a whopping 10 new players and completely rebuilding the squad from what we saw last season. Additions like Ousmane Dembélé and Randal Kolo Muani are nice, but even better is reintegrating the best player in the world, Kylian Mbappe, to the squad.
Nice have had an interesting start to the season with three draws against Lille, Lorient and Lyon, but they did get their first win of the season before the international break, dominating Strasbourg at home. They lost both meetings against PSG last year, even after a resurgent second half of the season, so they'll be out for revenge on Friday.
PSG
Things are going to change under Luis Enrique and the transfers they brought are moves toward his possession-dominant style. With the Spanish National Team, Enrique put a massive amount of emphasis on game control and controlling a large share of the possession. Through four matches, PSG are averaging an absurd 72.3% possession and they've played two of their four matches against top seven sides like Lens and Lyon. PSG already have 128 10+ pass sequences in four matches, which is 49 more than the next-closest team.
It has translated to 9.4 xG in those four matches, including a 4-1 rout right before the international break at Lyon, where they created 4.5 xG off of 21 shots.
The biggest change with PSG is what they are going to be doing out of possession. While Messi, Neymar and Mbappe were a world class front three, they did very little defensive work. That meant PSG were often defending with seven guys and having to sit in low blocks, which they weren't very effective in when they had to play top sides.
They really weren't even that effective of a pressing team under Christophe Galtier, posting a PPDA of 11.01, good for ninth in Ligue 1. So far in four matches under Enrique, PSG have a PPDA of 8.8 and have forced 48 high turnovers, so the front three are clearly more active out of possession.
Nice
Nice had a resurgent second half of last season after they brought in Didier Digard to be their manager on January 10th. In his 21 matches in charge, Nice had a +16.3 npxGD, which is the second-best mark in France during that time frame. He has sured up their defense, as Nice only allowed only 0.96 npxG per 90 minutes. Nice had an incredibly effective low block, ranking second in final third to penalty box conversion rate allowed, and that is something that new manager Francesco Farioli has continued to build on.
Through four matches, Nice have conceded just 2.6 xG, which is the best mark in Ligue 1. They have allowed the fewest shots, box entries and second-lowest xThreat, only to PSG.
Farioli was previously the manager at Turkish side Analyspor, who were not a good defensive team by any stretch of the imagination, but they were in the relegation fight for most of the season, so he had to be aggressive to keep them up in Super Lig. He played a bunch of different formations last season, but he's settled with a 4-3-3 in four matches with an emphasis on pressing high and not allowing opponents to play out from the back. Nice have forced the third-most high turnovers and already have 10 shots off of those high turnovers, so they will make life difficult on PSG as they try to build out from the back.
PSG vs Nice
Pick & Prediction
The biggest thing with Enrique teams is the pace of the match is typically really slow. Given the amount of possession PSG have had and the sheer amount of passes they've attempted, matches will typically be low-event.
Nice have been pressing high effectively this season, but it would be a bit reckless to try and press this PSG team, so I think you will see them pick their spots, but most of the time settle into a good defensive shape and be incredibly difficult to break down.
This is a lookahead spot for PSG, and they've shown in recent years they care far more about the Champions League than Ligue 1.
With squad rotation in mind and the fact I only project 2.87 goals if PSG play their best starting XI, I like the value on the under 3.
Pick: Under 3 (-104 via BetRivers)
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