Real Madrid vs Celtic Odds, Pick: Madrid to Dominate on Wednesday

Real Madrid vs. Celtic Odds

Closing out group-stage play in the Champions League, Real Madrid host Celtic on Wednesday looking to clinch the top spot in Group F.

Los Blancos can win the group with a victory in the finale or if Shakhtar Donetsk defeat RB Leipzig in the other match.

Meanwhile, the Scottish side will just be playing for pride, as they cannot secure a place in the knockout rounds or the Europa League — but this is a chance for a memorable result at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

Finishing as the group winner makes your route to the final much easier, which is why I think the home side will come out very motivated for the three points in this one.

All Systems Go for Madrid

Last season’s winners have been very professional in the UCL, winning the first three matches of the group before failing to secure a win in the next two.

Madrid have been extremely dominant at home in the competition, owning a +3 xGDiff and holding opponents to just 0.7 expected goals per 90 minutes, according to fbref.com.

Most were surprised by the 3-2 defeat to Leipzig in the last game, but manager Carlo Ancelotti elected to rest multiple starters in that fixture.

Karim Benzema, Luka Modrić and David Alaba were all excluded from the starting 11. However, all three should be playing in this one.

A Tough Situation for Celtic

Celtic have really struggled in Europe’s major tournament, failing to win any of the first five matches in the group stage and only scoring three goals in the process.

The advanced metrics haven’t been as bad as the results, where the Celts have a -0.3 xGDiff and 1.34 expected goals per game average.

Unfortunately, the Scottish side has been extremely unlucky. In the five fixtures in the competition, Celtic only have three goals on 6.7 expected, while giving up 10 on seven xGA.

It won’t help that club captain and Scotland international Callum McGregor will miss this match due to a knee injury.

Betting Analysis & Pick

As you would expect, PointsBet has Madrid listed as the heavy moneyline favorite at -451 odds to go along with a high total of 3.5 goals. I’m looking to back the home side, but I need to look in the props market to find a better price.

So, my best bet is to play Real Madrid to be winning at Half-Time and Full-Time at -140.

I mentioned above how dominant Ancelotti’s team has been at home in the UCL, but this has also been the case in La Liga. In eight home games in all competitions, Madrid hold a +12 xGDiff and have kept opponents to just 0.888 expected goals per 90 minutes.

This should be a game where Ancelotti’s side will want to get the early goal to take the sting out of a Celtic team that has nothing to play for here. It also helps that the Scottish club has given up a goal in every match in the competition.

If you look at how the Celts performed against Leipzig and Madrid, the team allowed an average of 1.933 expected goals and 4.333 big scoring chances per 90 minutes in those three games.

The dynamic attacking duo of Benzema and Vinícius Júnior will be looking forward to adding to their goal and assists tallies in this one.

The Pick: Real Madrid – Half-Time/Full-Time (-140)