Real Madrid vs. Valencia Pick: Odds, Projections, Betting Preview for Thursday’s La Liga Match

Credit:

Oscar J. Barroso / AFP7 / Europa Press Sports via Getty Images. Pictured: Karim Benzema of Real Madrid.

  • Real Madrid is a -305 moneyline favorite over Valencia in Thursday's La Liga matchup (4 p.m. ET, beIN Sports), with Valencia at +750 and the draw at +450.
  • And with Barcelona's win on Tuesday, Real Madrid will need a win to keep the La Liga title race within reach.
  • Below you'll find betting odds as well as projected odds for comparison, and an expert pick on a side.

Real Madrid vs. Valencia Odds and Pick

Real Madrid odds -305
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Valencia odds +750
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Draw odds +450
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Over/Under 3 (-143/+118)
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Time Thursday, 4 p.m. ET
TV beIN Sports

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With Barcelona’s win on Tuesday, Real Madrid needs all three points against Valencia on Thursday. Anything less than a win, will effectively end the La Liga title race.

On the other side of the ball, Valencia are four points off Getafe for the final Europa League spot. Los Murcelagos need to find a way to get a result from this match to avoid slipping farther down the table.

One thing to note: this game will be played at Real Madrid’s training ground, while construction is done on the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium.

Real Madrid

Real Madrid returned from the break in style beating Eibar 3-1. Los Blancos scored three goals in the first half and then went on cruise control for the rest of the match. The matchup will be a step up in competition, but I don’t think Los Blancos will have much trouble with Valencia.

Real Madrid boast an expected goal differential of +28.96, which ranked first in La Liga. Real Madrid have been stellar on both sides on the ball, ranking second in both offense and defense (54.7xGF / 25.80 xGA), which has led to some pretty big scorelines, especially at home.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


At home this season, Real Madrid are undefeated and are winning games on average by 1.47 expected goals. In fact, Los Blancos have won 50% of their games at home by two or more goals. Real Madrid is one team that will greatly benefits from the new five substitution rule as they may be one of the deepest teams in all of Europe.

Valencia

When I think of Valencia only one word comes to mind, overrated. Los Murcelagos should be eight points worse than where they currently sit, based on expected points (43 actual vs. 34.83 xPoints).

In fact, their current goal differential of -1 is inflated as their expected goal differential is -8.42. Regression is coming for Valencia and playing against Real Madrid should expose them for the team they actually are.

It’s been tough sledding for Los Mucelagos on the road this season. Valencia have only managed 12 points in 14 matches and have a -11.03 xGD. They’ve been especially bad over their past six matches on the road — winless with a -6.09 xGD.

What’s even worse is their offense has only generated 0.57 xG per game in those six matches. It’s tough to see how they are going to get a result against the Spanish giants.

Analysis

Published Wednesday evening.

Real Madrid are heavy favorites in this match, but I think the books have undervalued Los Blancos:

  • Real Madrid projected odds: -322 (76.31% win probability)
  • Valencia projected odds: +1029 (8.85% win probability)
  • Draw projected odds: +574 (14.84% win probability)
  • Real Madrid projected xG: 2.58
  • Valencia projected xG: 0.77

Since I am getting plus odds, I am going take the spread of -1.5 for Los Blancos in this match.

Pick: Real Madrid -1.5 (+105)

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