English Premier League Betting Odds & Picks for Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur (Saturday, Feb. 13)

Manchester City vs. Spurs Odds

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Tottenham Hotspur is the last team to defeat Manchester City in the Premier League, which actually happened way back in November.

At the time, the win moved Spurs top of the table and pushed the Cityzens down to 13th in the league standings.

Since then, things have gone vastly different. Manchester City has taken control of the title race in England's top flight, winning 11 games out of its last 13 fixtures (the other two results were draws) and Spurs have fallen to eighth place ahead of this rematch.

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Manchester City

The Cityzens are the league's best team by far, and maybe even across Europe at the moment based on expected goals and recent performances.

Manchester City actually conceded a goal via penalty this past Saturday during its 4-1 dominating win over Liverpool. While the Cityzens were helped by two goalkeeping errors from Liverpool's Alisson, they have allowed less than one non-penalty expected goal in 11 of those 13 matches since the loss to Spurs.

Manager Pep Guardiola will be weary of Spurs' counterattacking ability, which has doomed his side in recent games with them. From the Champions League knockout loss in 2018-19 to the 2-0 defeat at Spurs without Kane last season, as well as this season's setback, Guardiola has had less success against Spurs than any other league side.

His defense appears to be well set-up to shut off the out ball to Kane and prevent Son from getting in behind, and Spurs will not have enough of the ball to progress it up the field any other way. It was the loss to Spurs in November that helped Guardiola realize his side's weakness in defending in transition and address it by altering their possessive style and attacking with fewer numbers.

Without Kevin De Bruyne, though, they've had a harder time breaking down teams when they haven't been gifted goals.

Spurs

Spurs have been in poor form as of late, losing four of their last five matches across all competitions. Three of those games were played without Harry Kane, but the biggest issue for them is not their attack. It's the defense.

Eric Dier gave away a penalty to Chelsea, plus Toby Alderweireld and Davinson Sanchez made too many mistakes in the Everton defeat in Wednesday's FA Cup action. The center backs have regressed significantly in recent weeks, which is a reason why Spurs have slipped from second to fourth in expected goals against this season.

One major issue in this match for the defense are the injuries to the fullbacks. Sergio Reguilon has been ruled out, and Serge Aurier is unlikely to play. That means Matt Doherty is likely to start at right back, and he will struggle to defend Manchester City standout Raheem Sterling.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

Despite my concerns about Spurs' defense trending downward, they should be able to contain Manchester City for large stretches of this game.

If the Cityzens do score, they're likely to use the conservative possession style they've implemented so effectively to prevent Spurs from counterattacking and scoring themselves.

I project 2.67 goals in this match, so I will take the under on the alternative line of three goals at-120 or better.

Even with Kane back, Spurs' attack hasn't shown enough in recent weeks that they can threaten Manchester City's defense.

Pick: Total Under 3 Goals (-141)