West Ham United vs. Manchester United Premier League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions
Oli Scarff/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Manchester United stars Marcus Rashford and Edinson Cavani.
- West Ham United hosts Manchester United in Premier League action Saturday at London Stadium.
- The Hammers and Red Devils played a tight contest against each other the first time they met.
- Anthony Dabbundo breaks down the meeting and gives his best bets.
West Ham vs. Manchester United Odds
|West Ham Odds||+265 [BET NOW]|
|Manchester United Odds||+104 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+255 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-134/+108) [BET NOW]|
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
Manchester United might have lost to Paris St. Germain in the Champions League earlier this week, but it has won three consecutive Premier League matches heading into Saturday’s game against West Ham United.
The Red Devils are hoping to continue that tear at London Stadium against the Hammers, who are enjoying an excellent run of form and solid play following the international break.
Let’s take a look at these clubs and see what might be on deck.
The Hammers have continued their excellent form since the league’s restart. They were one of the top teams based on performance in the nine-game stretch before the FIFA break, and have continued to be near the top of the league in performance and results.
West Ham was very fortunate to beat Aston Villa last time it took the pitch, as it was outplayed on expected goals by a 2.39-0.57 margin. The club also needed a stoppage-time VAR ruling in its favor that would have helped Aston Villa secure the draw.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
The Hammers’ defense has allowed the seventh fewest xGA this season, which means Manchester United will have a hard time breaking through early in the game because none of its usual attacking options — outside Bruno Fernandes — are in form at the moment.
When these two teams met in July, there were almost no scoring chances for either side until the final moments of the first half, when Manchester United’s Paul Pogba conceded a penalty.
Few teams had a worse handful of performances to start the year, with Manchester United losing to Crystal Palace, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal.
Manchester United’s recent results haven’t been anything special the last two weeks — a 1-0 win over West Bromwich Albion and a 3-2 comeback win against Southampton — but the efforts were much improved. The club posted 4.16 non-penalty expected goals in the last two games, which is its two highest games of the entire season in the metric.
Prior to the international break, Manchester United also handled Everton on both the scoreboard and underlying numbers.
I still have major questions about the long term sustainability of this attack, but Edinson Cavani has been a welcome addition off the bench.
As a whole, Manchester United ranks 10th in NPxG difference in part because both of its two top attackers — Marcus Rashford and Anthony Martial — are under 0.31 NPxG per 90, neither of which is good enough for United to make the top four on the table.
Cavani though has produced 1.13 NPxG per 90 in 118 minutes of action, with his ability to get quality shots the only reason Manchester United beat Southampton. In both games against West Brom and Southampton, it wasn’t until Cavani came on that the Red Devils started generating anything.
It’s unclear what manager Ole Gunnar Solskjær’s plan is in terms of starting lineups, but West Ham are the kind of team Manchester United has struggled with under him. The Hammers will sit deep, absorb pressure and counter.
Betting Analysis & Picks
I don’t show much value on either team in my projections, as I make Manchester United a minus-105 favorite. Oddsmakers have given the Red Devils a +104 edge on the numbers.
If the Red Devils drift to at least +115, I’ll look to make a play on them. However, if Cavani doesn’t start, Manchester United’s stagnant attack and improved defense will lead me to a first-half under wager.
The Red Devils have allowed less than 0.5 NPxGA in their last five games. That said, I forecast a slow start to this game before it opens up in the second half.
Picks: Manchester United ML +115 or higher | First Half Total Under 1 (+110 or better if Cavani doesn’t start)