Spain vs Netherlands Odds, Pick | Women’s World Cup Quarterfinal Preview
Soccrates Images/Getty/ Pictured: Wieke Kaptein.
Spain vs Netherlands Odds
|Over / Under|
+120 / -163
As we head into the quarterfinals, the Women's World Cup bracket is really heating up. There are only big matchups and heavyweight clashes from here on out.
On Thursday, in Wellington, New Zealand, the Netherlands take on Spain for a place in the final four. An interesting clash of pragmatism meets panache.
Playing in just their third-ever World Cup, the Dutch have reached the knockout rounds in every appearance. Most recently, in 2019, they reached the final. They lost to the United States 2-0.
Prior to this tournament, Spain – also playing in just their third-ever World Cup – had never been past the round of 16 before. Can La Roja extend their historic run past the quarterfinal stage?
Well, the oddsmakers think so. Spain are the favorite to win at -172, but it's rather close with the Netherlands a hair over evens at +134. Opta stats' supercomputers agree somewhat, and have given the Spanish a 64.5% chance of winning.
Spain have undoubtedly played some of the most attractive soccer at the World Cup so far. In terms of short and medium passing, La Roja are magnificent. No team has had more possession (74.8%) or touches in the opponent's penalty box (202) in Australia and New Zealand than Spain,
The pressure Spain build from holding the ball so well means they can play their build up high up the pitch. What they will try and do is move opposition out of their shape by passing and moving intricately.
Jorge Vilda has his Spain team playing in a 4-3-3, but as they attack and push players forward it can often feel like a 3-2-1-4. One full back will join the midfield and two midfielders bomb into the half-space and frontline.
All those players joining the attack has resulted in a lot of chances on goal. Spain rank first for xG (13.2), shot-creating actions (178) and shot attempts (103). Averaging three goals scored per match, La Roja are an exciting and highly creative force.
The key player has been Aitana Bonmati, who scored two goals in the 5-1 round of 16 win over Switzerland. The FC Barcelona midfielder has a habit for using her close control to fake out defenders and buy herself more space to take shots on goal.
It hasn't been perfect, though. A 4-0 loss to Japan in the group stage showed what happens when Spain can't break down opponents and then leave space at the back to get counterattacked.
The Netherlands have been quite business-like on their route to the quarterfinals. Outside of the 7-0 win over Vietnam, the Oranje have just been about getting the job done. By any means necessary.
Of course, that doesn't mean the soccer hasn't been interesting or well thought out.
Leading up the tournament, head coach Andries Jonker elected to develop a 3-5-2 formation and it has brought the best out of this potentially underrated team. No team at the 2023 World Cup has more high turnovers forced than the Dutch, who have 85. The Netherlands defend from the front.
Few experts rated Holland's makeshift defensive group – that includes 33-year-old midfielder Sherida Spitse – but the three center back shape has prevented teams from overrunning them.
It has also allowed Jonker to maximize the influence of his most vital players in the system, wing backs Esmee Brugts and Victoria Pelova. The duo have a combined two goals, one assist and 19 shot-creating actions.
Holland's secret weapon might even be goalkeeper Daphne van Domselaar, a potential golden glove winner. With zero goals conceded from open play and a post-shot xG +/- of +2.0, the 23-year-old has been a real difference maker for the steely Europeans.
The 2-0 round of 16 win over South Africa saw Holland have much more of the ball but look vulnerable in transition. Banyana Banyana forced seven saves from the Netherlands' goalkeeper, but she stood firm for her third clean sheet of the 2023 World Cup.
Spain vs Netherlands
The Netherlands are an interesting match for a Spain team that will likely dominate possession and chances. Jonker's team is tough, and will not roll over, but can they score enough to keep up with Spain if they break through the Dutch resolve?
Expect this game to be close. With Spain so good going forward, but nervy in defense, there should be a good amount of goals too. Considering she's Spain's leading goalscorer, therevalue to be had with Bonmati to score first (+1000) or anytime (+500).
Additionally, because Spain keep the ball so much in the opposition's half they currently average one corner kick against per match. So don't expect Holland to get many corners. Betting on Spain to win the corner spread at -102 seems very sensible, but I'll stick with the over.