Sunday Premier League Soccer Betting Odds, Picks & Preview: Manchester City vs. Everton (May 23)
Manchester City vs. Everton Odds
|Manchester City Odds||-244|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-154 / +135)|
|Day | Time||Sunday | 11 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||CNBC | Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated Saturday afternoon via DraftKings.|
Everton looks to keep their slim European hopes alive Sunday against a Manchester City side that has clinched the league title and is eyeing the UEFA Champions League Final.
The visitors need to win, see West Ham lose at home to Southampton and Tottenham lose or draw at Leicester.
City has understandably taken their foot off the gas, losing two of their last three after building an insurmountable league lead.
They clinched their seventh league crown in club history — and fifth in the last decade — when crosstown rivals Manchester United lost to Leicester on May 12.
Manchester City: Could A Farewell To A Legend Bring A Return To Form On Defense?
City’s recent “slide” has come after besting Paris St. Germain in the UCL semifinals and owes primarily to a drop off defensively
Manager Pep Guardiola’s men conceded twice to Chelsea and three goals each against Brighton and Newcastle. Those eight tallies are 25% of their total allowed across the whole season.
City yielded 2.2 expected goals (xG) worth of chances to Newcastle, their second-most all season, despite holding a season-high 82% of the possession.
Perhaps that defensive edge will return naturally with the emotions that accompany a farewell to club legend Sergio Aguero.
Some 10,000 fans will be permitted to come to the Etihad Stadium to celebrate City’s latest title and pay respects to the Argentine. The 32-year-old will join Barcelona following the season after being a major contributor in those five most recent championship seasons.
Everton: Trying To Avoid The Manchester Sweep
In addition to trying to sneak into sixth and grab a place in next year’s UEFA Europa League, Everton is also hoping to avoid finishing the season zero-for-Manchester.
The Toffees have already lost twice to Man United in the league and two times to Man City between league and FA Cup encounters.
Manager Carlo Ancelotti’s squad has taken at least three points off the other five teams above them in the table entering the weekend.
While Everton’s strength when playing as an underdog hasn’t amounted to results against City, they’ve performed better against the new champs than others.
It took 84 minutes for City to break a deadlock in a 2-0 cup FA Cup quarterfinal win. They were only 0.5 xG better than Everton in a 3-1 league win at Goodison Park back in February.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Trying to find value on City this season can be a creative endeavor.
They’re typically heavy enough favorites that the money line causes pause and consistent enough performers that betting on underdogs causes the same.
Also a full disclosure here: I’m an Everton supporter, and my internal fan wants to bet them on a win-draw double chance. The Toffees function better against sides that will let them sit deep, absorb pressure and counter with pace.
But as an analyst, I still think City will be too good considering the occasion of welcoming back fans and seeing off Aguero. It just might take time.
The first half between these sides ended even twice, and I certainly think an improved Everton defense will give plenty of resistance again. That’s enough of a trend for me to bet the first 45 minutes end level again at +163 odds, an implied 38% probability.
Pick: First-half draw (+163)