Everton vs. Wolves Odds, Picks, Preview: Bet on Toffees’ Home Crowd in Wednesday Premier League Match (May 19)
Alex Pantling/Getty Images. Pictured: Dominic Calvert-Lewin
- Everton welcomes Wolves to Goodison Park for Wednesday's Premier League showdown.
- The Toffees suffered a crushing loss to last-place Sheffield United last time out, putting a damper on next season's European soccer dreams.
- Ian Quillen breaks down the match below and uncovers a wager that provides quality value.
Everton vs. Wolves Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 ( +102 / -125)|
|Day | Time||Wednesday | 1 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated Wednesday morning via DraftKings.|
Wednesday’s match between Everton and Wolves is the classic case of having an enormous sample size and the chance none of it may matter.
Motivation is essential in soccer and it could be hard for each of these sides to manufacture in a fixture with not much material at stake.
For Everton, the carrot of playing in front of a home crowd for the first time in 2021 might be tinged with fan discontent following a disappointing loss to already-relegated Sheffield United. Everton are technically still alive for European places, but the defeat severely dented those hopes.
Wolves are quite literally only playing for pride and jobs on next year’s roster, with safety from relegation secured for a while and even a top-half finish out of reach.
Everton More Productive as Underdog Than Favorite
Fans on the blue half of Merseyside may be thoroughly befuddled by this year’s team. But you can’t say they don’t follow a pattern.
Essentially, the Toffees are exceptionally good at earning results as underdogs, including gaining at least a point in their last five such matches, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Premier League predictions.
They’re just as bad as favorites, going winless in the last four games they entered with a probability of victory. And both trends have more or less applied going back further over most of the season.
The tendency for the contradictory also applies to the venue. Everton have earned the fourth-most points away and sixth-fewest at home in the league this season.
Even with closed stadiums during the COVID-19 pandemic removing some home-field edge, Everton’s tendency to earn a full point more per match away (2.06 to 1.06) represents the largest such gap in the Premiership.
Offense Has Been Lacking All Season for Wolves
Ahead of the trip to Liverpool, Wolves manager Nuno Espirito Santo revealed it’s possible — if unlikely — striker Raul Jimenez could be cleared to return by the weekend.
However, it’s almost certainly too soon for the Mexican international after his long layoff due to a skull fracture sustained in a 2-1 win over Arsenal late last November.
Without him, Wolves have earned the occasional result but lacked explosiveness — a truth laid bare by the fact that Jimenez’s four goals remain just one shy of the team lead.
It’s fair to say they weren’t all that dynamic even with him in Espirito Santo’s XI this season, scoring more than two goals only once in 40 matches across all competitions. Yet, of the 14 matches in which Wolves have failed to score, 11 have come since his departure from the rotation.
Betting Analysis & Pick
If the stadiums were still closed Wednesday, I would jump all over double chance bet on Wolves earning at least a point at -102 odds.
However, I sincerely think it’s possible 6,500 Evertonians in Goodison Park will influence proceedings. And with of them more happy to be at a match than frustrated with their side’s recent form, I suspect that influence will be primarily positive
Even so, Everton haven’t shown an ability to truly break town sides that park the bus, and there’s not much to suggest Wolves will come out looking to play a wide open affair.
So, I’d strongly consider wagering no on both teams to score at -123 odds. That’s an implied probability of 55%, well south of recent trends for both clubs.
One team has failed to score in 10 of Everton’s last 15 league matches. For Wolves, it’s the same percentage over a slightly shorter stretch, coming in six of their last nine games.
Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-123)
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