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Sunderland (1-6-2) and Chelsea (5-3-1) will face off today at 9:00 a.m. ET at Stadium of Light in Sunderland, England.
Chelsea is favored at a -110 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-130o / +103u) goals.
Let's get into my Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction.
Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction
Pick:Chelsea to Win & Both Teams to Score
My Sunderland vs Chelsea best bet is for the visitors to win and both teams to find the back of the net.
Sunderland vs Chelsea Odds
Sunderland vs Chelsea Premier League Preview
Chelsea possesses a significant talent advantage and enters this contest with superior preparation. With no midweek match to play, Xabi Alonso's squad can dictate the tempo early. Their possession numbers continue to rise, as they recently averaged 58% against Manchester United. They also controlled 62% of the ball across two matches with Sunderland last season.
The visitors are highly clinical. They overperform their expected goals, scoring 19 times with a 15.08% shot conversion rate. Sunderland, conversely, converts just 6.19% of their shots. The hosts average 12.56 shots per game compared to 14 for the visitors. Efficiency will dictate the outcome, and the away side holds a massive edge in the final third.
The visitors recently exited the EFL Cup after a draw with Liverpool, which allows them to focus entirely on the Premier League.
Historically, Sunderland found success in this matchup last season, winning both encounters 2-1 to secure a seventh-place finish and a European spot. They averaged 1.74 points per game at the Stadium of Light last year. However, their current form is drastically different. They are winless in seven league matches and just suffered a brutal 5-1 defeat to Coventry. They currently rank as the fourth-worst defensive team in the league with 15.73 expected goals against.
The historical head-to-head record shows 61 wins for Chelsea, 44 for Sunderland, and 22 draws across 127 matches. Both teams have scored in four of their last five encounters, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.
Given the current trajectory and the severe schedule disparity, the visitors are primed to avenge the defeats from last season. While Cole Palmer remains a strong threat to score, Morgan Rogers offers excellent value after scoring the first goal against Manchester United last weekend.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Sunderland vs Chelsea picks.
Sunderland vs Chelsea Picks, Parlay, Betting Analysis
Leg 1:Chelsea to Win
Leg 2:Both Teams to Score
Sunderland face a massive schedule disadvantage in this match. The hosts play a Europa League game against Dinamo Zagreb just days prior. This forces head coach Regis Le Bris to navigate a fourth consecutive midweek game. In stark contrast, Chelsea enjoy eight full days of rest. This marks the fifth game in 22 days for the visitors, while the hosts endure their eighth match in 24 days. This severe fatigue discrepancy heavily favors the rested away side.
Despite their defensive woes, Sunderland will feel immense pressure to attack. They sit at the very bottom of the table and concede an average of 1.9 goals per game. If they fall behind early, desperation will likely force them to push players forward. This aggressive approach creates opportunities for both teams to find the back of the net, which makes the Both Teams to Score market a viable Sunderland vs. Chelsea pick.
Under Xabi Alonso, Chelsea show clear offensive improvement. They rank as the third-best offensive team in the league with 19 goals. While their defense remains vulnerable, as they have allowed 15 goals so far, their firepower is undeniable.
The visitors are dealing with their own injury crisis, as first-choice goalkeeper E. Martinez, captain Reece James, and top scorer Joao Pedro are all unavailable. However, Alonso still fields a strong squad in a 4-2-3-1 formation.
Sunderland vs Chelsea Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Sunderland | Draw | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 27% | 23% | 50% |
Projected Total Goals
| Sunderland | Total Goals | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| 0.78 | 3.78 | 2.11 |
