Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds, Picks & Predictions For Tuesday’s Champions League Quarterfinal
Manu Reino/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images. Pictured: Real Madrid standout Karim Benzema.
- Two of the last three Champions League winners square off Tuesday in the quarterfinal round of the competition.
- Real Madrid has thrived as of late, taking out Italian side Atalanta in the Round of 16, while Liverpool is facing an identity crisis due to defensive injuries.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down below how he's backing Los Blancos to get the advantage in the first leg in Madrid.
Real Madrid vs. Liverpool Odds
|Real Madrid Odds||+170|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-124 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Monday evening via DraftKings.|
Liverpool and Real Madrid meet Tuesday in a Champions League quarterfinal match, marking the first time these sides will play each other in the European tournament since the 2018 final.
For those who don’t remember, Mohamed Salah was at the peak of his talents that season and being talked about in the same conversation as Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo, as he scored 52 goals in all competitions.
However, he was forced off early in that match after Sergio Ramos injured his shoulder on a questionable play.
From then on, Real Madrid took advantage of a couple of Liverpool mistakes, en route to a 3-1 victory and its third consecutive UCL crown.
Both teams though come into the match with some major injury problems on the defensive side of things. Liverpool is still without its top three center backs in Virgil Van Djik, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez, while Real Madrid is going to be without captain Ramos.
Both teams though have an amazing opportunity in front of them, with either Porto or Chelsea awaiting the winner in the semifinal round.
Real Madrid took care of business against Atalanta in the Round of 16, beating the Italian side, 4-1, on aggregate and, more importantly, dominating it when it came to expected goals by a 4.49-1.43 margin.
The club has also been on a great run in La Liga since the calendar turned to 2021. Los Blancos have won 11 of their 16 matches across all competitions, putting up a +14.67 xGDiff in the process. They took care of business out of the international break, earning a routine 2-0 over Eibar on Saturday.
Manager Zinedine Zidane’s 4-3-3 system has been completely overwhelming teams this season, as Real Madrid is registering 1.84 xG per 90 minutes and allowing just 1.00 xGA when playing out of that formation.
Additionally, Karim Benzema has been the man in form, notching 0.67 xG/90 minutes in La Liga this season. He’ll be a very difficult matchup for Liverpool’s center backs.
Real Madrid will be well equipped to handle Liverpool’s formation since it knows the setup inside and out. Not having Ramos is going to be a problem, but the leader is now 34 years old and has missed most of the season due to injury anyway. That said, Real Madrid is used to not having him on the field.
Liverpool came out of the international break firing on all cylinders, beating Arsenal, 3-0, at Emirates Stadium. However, things haven’t been going great for manager Jürgen Klopp’s men, who have created 1.41 xG per match since the beginning of February, compared to 2.07 xG in their first 14 fixtures of the season.
The Reds have a major tactical problem at the moment. Usually, Klopp plays an all-out, high press that gives teams fits. Liverpool’s high line at the back also keeps opponents from playing long balls up the field, causing most of them to spend less time on the ball since they’re forced to make quick passes.
In the last round, though, Real Madrid saw an all-out high press against Atalanta and handled it quite well. If the Reds decide to employ it, Los Blancos will be highly effective in breaking it down.
With Liverpool’s top three center backs out for the rest of the season, it has to back off its high press so its fill-in defenders aren’t exposed. Zidane knows this and will likely have Real Madrid sit back, then look to hit Liverpool on the counter over and over again.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Given the problems Liverpool has had on defense, I think it’s in trouble heading to Spain. Real Madrid is one of the most organized, disciplined clubs on the planet, with depths and depths of talent at every position and should be favored at home.
Since I have Real Madrid projected at +117 odds, I think there’s a lot of value on its Draw No Bet line at -105 odds.
Pick: Real Madrid — Draw No Bet (-105)