United States vs. Canada Odds, Picks, Prediction: CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Preview (July 18)

United States vs. Canada Odds, Picks, Prediction: CONCACAF Gold Cup Betting Preview (July 18) article feature image
Credit:

John Dorton/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: United States striker Daryl Dike.

  • The top spot in Group B at the Gold Cup is on the line when the United States faces Canada.
  • The Canadians have the tiebreaker with one more goal scored than the Americans, so the U.S. needs all three points.
  • Ian Quillen breaks down the matchup and where he sees betting value below.

United States vs. Canada Odds

United States Odds -129
Canada Odds +420
Draw +210
Over/Under 2.5 (+118 / -148)
Day | Time Sunday | 5 p.m. ET
How To Watch FOX | Univision | fuboTV
Odds updated Saturday night via DraftKings.

The United States men’s national team faces Canada in both teams’ Gold Cup Group B finale on Sunday, with the Americans needing a victory to win the group and avoid a potential semifinal meeting with Mexico.

Both the U.S. and Canada won their first two group matches over Haiti and Martinique, and both hold identical plus-6 goal differences entering Sunday.

The Canadians hold the next tiebreak with eight goals scored, one more than the Americans over 180 minutes.

Despite that tiebreak, as well as a young and relatively inexperienced roster, the Americans are still solid favorites to take all three points before a pro-U.S. crowd in Kansas City.

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United States Coming Off Convincing Win

After leaning largely on the more experienced members of his squad in a 1-0 win over Haiti, manager Gregg Berhalter fielded a starting XI with an average age of 23 in Thursday’s 6-1 demolition of Martinique.

The Americans got almost everything they could’ve hoped for, including the second and third international goals for Daryl Dike, who could very well play his way to the top of the Americans’ striking depth chart with a strong tournament.

Still, context is important. This was a win against a Martinique squad that was in only its second competitive match since 2019.

The Caribbeans are fielding the tournament’s oldest roster — one that pulls primarily from their semi-pro domestic league — and were playing a second match in five days against a far superior opponent.

The biggest benefit may be that the circumstances allowed Berhalter to rotate his squad while Canada manager John Herdman lacked that luxury.

The talent gap between the U.S. and Canada best XIs isn’t that wide. But depth is a clear American advantage, which freshness is likely to also be on Sunday.

Canada Faces Lineup Conundrum

Herdman brought much closer to a full-strength squad to this tournament than Berhalter, but it won’t necessarily feel that way against the Americans.

Bayern Munich fullback Alphonso Davies was set to participate, then suffered an injury during training that ruled him out for the duration of the tournament. Then in Thursday’s victory over Haiti, creative midfielder Stephen Estaquio picked up his second yellow card of the tournament for time wasting while his team held a late three-goal lead, which means he’ll be suspended for this one.

Those absences could tempt Herdman to opt for a more conservative posture, especially since a draw sees Canada top the group. But that’s not the strength of this particular roster or Herdman’s Gold Cup history.

According to Transfermarkt, Canada’s three center backs are among the six least valuable players within this 23-man roster.

Meanwhile, there have been at least three combined goals scored in each of Canada’s last seven Gold Cup matches dating back to the 2017 quarterfinals.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

When this tournament began, I thought Canada had a very real shot to upset the United States and sneak out of Group B with the top spot.

That enthusiasm lessened with the early Davies news, and it diminished even further with Estaquio’s yellow-card suspension. And while Canada’s experience would typically be an advantage against a younger U.S. squad, the short rest slants things in the Americans favor.

So, if you want to bet the Americans to win at -129 odds and a 56.3% implied probability, I won’t argue, even if their greenness gives me pause. Playing the total over 2.5 goals may have even more value at +118 odds and 45.9% implied probability.

The U.S. needs to go for three points instead of just one and possesses the combination of talent and inexperience that could lead to a wide-open contest if they do so.

Herdman’s squad has already conceded to Haiti and Martinique, so it’s tough to imagine them keeping a clean sheet. Also, Canada’s Cyle Larin is arguably the tournament’s most in-form striker.

Pick: Total Over 2.5 Goals (+118)

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