Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Marseille vs. Porto (Wednesday, Nov. 25)

Champions League Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions for Marseille vs. Porto (Wednesday, Nov. 25) article feature image
Credit:

Miguel Riopa/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Porto players celebrate Mehdi Taremi’s goal.

  • Marseille has really put itself in a terrible spot entering Wednesday's Champions League match against Porto.
  • The Phocaeans have not scored a goal in their three tournament defeats, including a 3-0 shutout loss to Porto the last time they met.
  • Jeremy Pond breaks down the fixture and gives us his top plays.

Marseille vs. Porto Odds

Marseille Odds +210 [BET NOW]
Porto Odds +138 [BET NOW]
Draw +230 [BET NOW
Over/Under 2.5 (+102/-127)
Time 3 p.m. ET
TV CBS All Access | fuboTV

Odds updated as of Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


There will be plenty on the line Wednesday when Marseille hosts Porto in a crucial Champions League showdown at Stade Vélodrome.

Both sides’ UCL destinies could potentially be decided in this Group C fixture, which should generate some serious drama and excitement.

For Marseille, this really is the make-or-break moment for the Ligue 1 club. The Phocaeans are pointless through their first three matches of the competition, getting shut out on each occasion.

In contrast, Porto could put a stronghold on second place in the group with another solid showing. The Premeira Liga power would like to distance itself from Marseille and Greek side Olympiacos, which would solidify its place behind Manchester City among the quartet.

These sides met back on November 3 in Portugal, with Porto dominating Marseille in a 3-0 rout at Estádio do Dragão.

Let’s see how things shape up heading into this contest.

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Marseille

Things are not going well on the Mediterranean coast of France for the Phocaeans, who are in dire straits in group play.

Marseille has absolutely nothing to show for in its account following three bad losses, which really has it up against it entering this latest meeting with Porto. Making things even worse is the fact the Phocaeans have lost 12 consecutive UCL games, giving up at least two goals in 11 of those dozen defeats.

Looking at the statistical data, Marseille has downright terrible across the board as you probably guessed. The Phoecaeans currently sit on a brutal 1.9 expected goals and even worse 5.4 expected goals against, resulting in a -3.5 xGDiff and -1.17 xGDiff/90 minutes.

How bad is Marseille’s xG compared to the other clubs? It’s tied with Shakthar Donestk for last among the 32 teams competing in the tournament.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Porto

The Dragons have been in stellar form as of late, winning four of their last five matches across all competitions. That victory against Marseille, along with an impressive 2-0 triumph over Olympiacos, set up Porto nicely heading into this next set of UCL fixtures.

Historically, Porto has absolutely owned Marseille as of late, going unbeaten against its French counterpart in their last five meetings. That should give the Portuguese outfit even more confidence heading into this match.

When comparing similar data, Porto’s advanced metrics are obviously much better than its counterpart. The Dragons have a respectable 3.9 expected goals and 3.7 expected goals against, yielding a +0.2 xGDiff and +0.07 xGDiff/90 minutes.

As you can see, those numbers are pretty much a wash. However, they’re currently good enough to get Porto into the knockout stage if things hold.

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Betting Analysis & Picks

This really is a must-win match for Marseille if it’s going to have any chance of reaching the knockout phase of the competition.

Unfortunately, I just don’t see that happening. The Dragons were thoroughly beaten the last time these sides met, which sparks little confidence in me when it comes to the French club.

That said, I am backing Porto via the Draw No Bet wager at a fair price. Maybe I am playing it a little safe, but I feel this wager gives me some protection in case Marseille’s offensive decides to come out of hiding.

I will also play the total to stay under the alternative number of 2.75 goals. You could probably get away with playing the total of 2.5 goals due to Marseille’s offensive woes. However, leaning again toward some protection, I am going to pay a little bit more to get a safer price and play it with confidence.

Picks: Porto Draw No Bet (-127) | Under 2.75 Goals (-167)

[Bet the Marseille-Porto match at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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