The 2026 FIFA World Cup semifinals are here, and it's no surprise to see France still standing.
Les Bleus booked their spot in the semis by defeating Morocco last Thursday. They entered the tournament as one of the favorites, and with every match, they've only reinforced that belief.
Now, they're one win away from returning to the biggest stage of all. But first, there's one more tough battle to win.
Kalshi has a market for the "World Cup Winner," where traders can predict which nation will lift the trophy on July 19.
Kalshi also offers a variety of other unique markets, and if you want to get in on the action yourself, use our Kalshi promo code to get started.
Will France Win the 2026 World Cup?
According to Kalshi's odds, France has nearly a 40% chance to win the World Cup. That's largely because of the way they've performed throughout the tournament. They've scored 16 goals, with half of them coming from superstar Kylian Mbappe.
However, he's far from the only big name on this squad. Just reading the team sheet is enough to make you go, "wow." Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, Rayan Cherki … and that's just to name a few.
Didier Deschamps has been leading France for 14 years, and it's paying off. They won their second World Cup in 2018, finished runners-up to Argentina in 2022, and are in the midst of another deep run in North America.
Of course, nothing is guaranteed. The semifinals won't be easy, and one bad match can end the dream in an instant, but this is a team that plays for each other. Everyone attacks, everyone defends, everyone runs, and everyone is committed to the same goal.
Whoever stands in France's way has a serious problem, and Kalshi traders seem to agree.
What is Kalshi?
Different than a traditional sportsbook and available in most states, Kalshi allows users to make predictions across several unique markets, including sports, entertainment, elections, and even weather.
Also, Kalshi's refer-a-friend program is a "win-win" for prediction market traders. By inviting a friend to the platform, both you and your friend receive a $25 credit once you both meet the initial trading requirements.
Kalshi operates on a contract-based system where users buy "contracts" (priced between 1–99 cents) based on whether they believe a specific event will happen. The price of each contract fluctuates in real time based on market sentiment, and like the stock market, traders can sell positions early to lock in profits (or minimize losses).
