Wolves vs Tottenham Odds, Pick: Smart Prop to Bet in Premier League (Mar. 4)
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Wolves vs Tottenham Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+105 / -130)|
|Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)||(-125 / +100)|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get the latest soccer odds here.|
Tottenham will go for their third straight win in the Premier League on Saturday when they travel to the Molineux to take on Wolves.
Wolves were thoroughly dominated in the midweek by Liverpool, losing 2-0 and creating next to nothing after a big chance in the opening five minutes of the match. Wolves are still in the relegation fight as they are only three points above the drop zone, so this match is vitally important for them to avoid falling into the bottom three.
Tottenham have turned their form around, beating West Ham 2-0 and then following that up with a 2-0 win over Chelsea last Sunday. While they did fall in the FA Cup to Sheffield United, Antonio Conte will be returning to the touchline, which will be welcoming news for the Tottenham players.
Spurs have the second leg of their Round of 16 Champions League tie with AC Milan on Wednesday, but they are still battling to stay in the top four, so they need to take this match seriously.
Wolves Failing to Create Any Chances
How on earth are Wolves going to create more than 1 xG in this match? We just saw Chelsea go up against Spurs and be completely ineffective in penetrating their low block, creating just 0.5 xG.
On the season, Wolves have created over 1 xG eight times. Those occasions came twice against Bournemouth, Leeds United, Liverpool, Chelsea, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City and Brighton.
The common theme with all of those teams is they are in the bottom half of the Premier League in xGA, which means Wolves haven’t even been able to create over 1 xG from open play against a top half defense. If you remove both matches against Liverpool, they’ve created just two big scoring chances since we’ve returned from the World Cup break.
It’s the same story over and over and over again for Wolves, who cannot get the ball into the opponent’s penalty box. Wolves are seventh in final third entries but 17th in final third to box entry conversion rate, while Tottenham are first in that category defensively.
Tottenham a Rare Breed of Team
Tottenham are much different than all of the other big six clubs. They are not a possession-dominant team that is going to press high and try to win the ball off you in your own half of the pitch. They are a very passive defense, but they are absolutely elite at defending their penalty area.
Spurs are best in the Premier League in final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, meaning only 22.4% of the time their opponent enters the final third are they able to turn that into a penalty box touch. It’s translated to the quality of chances they’ve allowed as well, as Spurs are third in the Premier League in big scoring chances allowed and have only allowed one in their last five matches.
Tottenham are a really good counterattacking side, but there have been some questionable offensive performances as of late. Despite scoring twice against Chelsea they only created 0.7 xG. Against AC Milan in the first leg of the Champions League they only created 0.5 xG, despite trailing for 83 minutes of the match, and they just created 0.8 xG against Sheffield United in the FA Cup on Wednesday.
In the previous meeting at home against Wolves, Tottenham attempted one shot in the first half before getting on the end of a cross in the second half to ultimately win the match 1-0. Could we see a similar match play out on Saturday?
Wolves vs Tottenham Pick
The last time these two faced off, Wolves outshot Tottenham 20-to-11, but 12 of those shots came from outside the box and only one of their 20 shots had an xG rating higher than 0.1.
Wolves have a perfectly average defense. They are 11th in npxG allowed in the Premier League, ninth in big scoring chances allowed though they defend both crosses and set pieces at a high level. This shouldn’t be a horrible matchup against Tottenham, who are in a lookahead spot with their second leg match against AC Milan in the Champions League on Wednesday.
I have Both Teams to Score – No projected at -115, so I like the value on the current line of +100.
Pick: Both Teams to Score – No (+100)
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