Wolves vs Bournemouth Pick, Prediction: Why to Back the Cherries

Wednesday, April 24

2:45 p.m. ET

Peacock

Wolves Odds	+180
Bournemouth Odds	+140
Draw	+260
Over / Under	2.5  -138o /+110u

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Let's make a Wolves vs. Bournemouth pick and prediction as we take a look at the English Premier League odds for Wednesday, April 24.

Wolves and Bournemouth square off at the Molineaux as both clubs are battling to finish the season in the top half of the table.

Wolves are coming off a lackluster 2-0 loss to Arsenal, which dropped them into the bottom half of the table. Gary O'Neil has had to navigate a pretty substantial injury crisis with Wolves missing a lot of their key attacking players. However, O'Neil will have some extra motivation on Wednesday facing the club that sacked him at the end of last season.

Bournemouth are coming off a 3-1 loss to Aston Villa, which keeps them right behind Wolves in the table. Bournemouth has been one of the better teams in the Premier League over the second half of the season and are set up really well here to grab all three points on the road against their former manager.

Find my Wolves vs Bournemouth prediction and Premier League match preview below.

Even though Wolves did a pretty good job in their defensive block against Arsenal, it was really evident the lack of attacking prowess they have without Cunha and Neto. Hwang only played a little over a half against Arsenal, and since Wolves is safe from relegation and have no shot of making a European spot, they’ve been more careful with their stars not to reaggravate their injuries.

They only created 0.14 xG against Arsenal on Saturday, and without any of their star attacking players returning, it really puts them in a difficult situation.

Bournemouth may have lost 3-1 to Aston Villa on Sunday, but they have really improved over the second half of the season, and this match sets up pretty well for them to unleash their high press. Wolves just recently played a match against Nottingham Forest where they tried to build out of the back with regularity, but they really struggled turning the ball over in their own half when they tried to switch the play to the other side of the field.

Wolves defensively is a very difficult team to break down because of how good they are defending their own penalty area. Wolves will allow space through the middle of the pitch, but they have allowed the lowest percentage of crosses to be completed into their penalty area and are also top five in blocked shot per 90 minutes.

However, relying on being an elite box-defending team when you have flaws in terms of your actual defensive block is a problem, and good attacking teams will eventually breakthrough and create some high quality chances.

The Cherries have had a resurgence since the middle of November, and it's because of how well they are playing out possession. Adoni Iraola's hybrid high press took some time to implement, but now it's working really well.

The way Bournemouth’s press works is they try to go man to man by pinning their opponents to one side of the pitch to force the turnover or force their opponents to switch the play to the other side of the pitch.

Early on in the season, teams would manipulate this because this system relies on the fullbacks' instincts to know when to come up and aid in the press or try to intercept that ball traveling across the pitch. Bournemouth weren’t great at defending those early on in the season, along with their midfielders struggling to know when to jump or not is why they had such a bad start to the season.

Not only has their high press forced a lot of high turnovers, but it's also suffocated opponents and forced them to send the ball long over the press. Bournemouth have done a much better job defending those long balls and teams like Wolves that are best when playing in transition.

Bournemouth is allowing the seventh-lowest Long-ball Completion Rate and have done a fantastic job at not allowing their opponents to create high quality chances off of those transition moments, as they've conceded the sixth fewest Big Scoring Chances.

Bournemouth without a doubt has the best attacking player in this match in Dominic Solanke. He's Bournemouth's most important player right now, as he's scored 18 of its 47 goals and has a 0.57 xG per 90 minute scoring rate this season.

Wolves' showing against Arsenal on Saturday goes to show how much they miss Cunha and Neto. They were actually finding some success through the first and second phases on build up, but since they have very little attacking talent available, they were able to do nothing in the final third.

So, what is going to change against a really good out of possession team like Bournemouth?

Since the beginning of February, Bournemouth have been about a goal better based on underlying numbers than Wolves, as the Cherries have +0.32 npxGD per 90 minutes, while Wolves have the third-worst mark in the Premier League at -0.64.

With all of the injuries for Wolves attack and the problems they had against Nottingham Forest with their build up, I really fear because they are at home that they are going to try to build out of the back, which will allow Bournemouth to unleash their high press and cause a lot of high turnovers.

Consequently, I like the value on the Cherries Draw no Bet at -118.

Pick: Bournemouth Draw no Bet -118 (bet365)