The group stage is a distant memory. The Round of 16 is done. The 2026 World Cup is down to eight teams, and the draw has handed us a tidy little storyline: every single quarterfinal pits a former champion against a country still chasing its first title.
In nearly 100 years of FIFA World Cup history, 22 editions have been played, yet only eight countries have had the privilege of lifting soccer's most coveted trophy: Brazil (5), Italy (4), Germany (4), Argentina (3), Uruguay (2), France (2), England (1), and Spain (1).
Four of those eight are still standing: Argentina, France, England, and Spain.
So are four teams with no title to their name: Belgium, Morocco, Norway, and Switzerland.
That split is exactly what Kalshi's "World Cup: First-Time Winner" market is built around
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Will the World Cup Winner be a 1st-Time Champion?
If a country that has never won a Men's FIFA World Cup Tournament wins the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes. However, if any of the eight countries listed above win the 2026 World Cup, the market will resolve to No.
Will There Be a 1st Time Winner? Market Analysis
Here's how the last eight break down:
- France vs. Morocco: Thursday, Foxborough, Massachusetts
- Spain vs. Belgium: Friday, Inglewood, California
- Norway vs. England: Saturday, Miami Gardens, Florida
- Argentina vs. Switzerland: Saturday, Kansas City, Missouri
Two of the newcomers have already carved out a piece of history no matter what happens next.
Norway is in a World Cup quarterfinal for the first time ever, riding Erling Haaland's scoring and a Round-of-16 win over Brazil to get there. Morocco, meanwhile, is back in the final eight for a second straight tournament: no African nation had ever done that before.
If we’re looking for nations capable of making a historic run and lifting the trophy this year, we have to keep an eye on Morocco, Switzerland, Norway, and Belgium.
Morocco and Norway are the two names doing the most to earn it right now. Belgium and Switzerland deserve a mention too: both have gone unbeaten so far, with three wins and two draws apiece.
While there’s never anything guaranteed in soccer, I don’t believe we’ll see a first-time winner at this World Cup. Not because there aren’t legitimate contenders capable of pulling off a historic run and joining the elite group of champions, but because there are several powerhouses among the clubs that have already lifted the trophy. It's hard to go against Ousmane Dembele and Kylian Mbappe’s France, Lamine Yamal’s Spain, and the reigning champions, Argentina, led by Lionel Messi.
That said, a first-time winner hasn't happened since Spain broke through in 2010, and this quarterfinal lineup, four legitimate contenders with zero titles between them, might be the best shot the underdogs have had in over a decade.
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