2024 French Open Odds, Picks | Expert Predictions for Badosa vs Putintseva, Pera vs Gracheva
Clive Mason/Getty. Pictured: Yulia Putintseva.
The second round of the French Open continues and the action is heating up!
I’ve found value on two of Thursday's matchups — Badosa vs Putintsevaand Pera vs Gracheva.
Read on to find French Open picks for Thursday, May 30.
Note: Match times are subject to change. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches and seeing tennis odds.
French Open Picks
Paula Badosa (-160) vs Yulia Putintseva (+132)
5 a.m. ET
Paula Badosa battled past Katie Boulter in a 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 victory in Paris. Badosa won 61% of her service points and was broken four times. The Spaniard also won 42% of her return points, breaking on five occasions.
While Badosa is just 5-4 on clay in 2024, she does have an impressive 166-88 mark for her career. The Spaniard is a clean ball striker, hitting her spots both on serve and from the ground. She attempts to dictate play with her forehand, but is also quick, defending and counterpunching effectively. And when she's playing well, Badosa's point construction is strong. With that said, Badosa's backhand is inconsistent, she lacks some firepower and her variety is not a strength.
Yulia Putintseva dismissed Sloane Stephens from Roland Garros in a 6-1, 6-2 win. Putintseva won 70% of her service points and was wasn't broken. In addition, the Kazakh won 58% of her return points, breaking on four occasions.
Putintseva is now an impressive 9-3 on clay this year, with a 164-88 professional-mark on the surface. Putintseva lacks some power, but she places the ball extremely well from both wings, especially her forehand. She, like Daria Kasatkina, is able to dictate through her placement instead of her power. Putintseva is quick, anticipating well, absorbing pace effectively and counterpunching successfully. The Kazakh's rally tolerance is very high, getting consistent depth. Putintseva's variety is also a strength, allowing her to effectively spread the court and keep the ball out of her opponents' strike zones.
Putintseva has played better tennis than Badosa all clay season, and that extends into the first round. Badosa struggled against fast-court player in Boulter, hitting 23 winners versus 30 unforced errors. On the other hand, Putitnseva hit 19 winners against 12 unforced errors in her victory.
Badosa has been streaky this season and that's a recipe for failure against the rock-solid Kazakh. Putintseva has a high tennis IQ and should be able to extend rallies and keep the ball on Badosa's weaker backhand. Badosa should become frustrated and overhit, not quite having the power to blast through Putintseva.
In addition, Putintseva should be able to drag Badosa around the court with her variety and keep the ball out of the Spaniard's strike zone.
Pick: Putintseva ML (+132 via FanDuel)
Bernarda Pera (-160) vs Varvara Gracheva (+125)
9 a.m. ET
Bernarda Pera destroyed Nao Hibino 6-2, 6-0 in the first round. Pera won 82% of her first serves and wasn't broken. The American also won 58% of her return points, breaking five times in seven return games.
Pera has an impressive 9-3 record on clay this year, now 255-106 as a professional on the surface. The 29-year old has a big, heavy, lefty serve and forehand, allowing her to dictate play. Pera's court positioning is strong, taking the initiative in rallies and pressuring her opponents with her controlled aggression. And, while the American's groundstrokes can break down, she's been more solid from this wing recently.
Varvara Gracheva upset Maria Sakkari 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 to advance in Paris. Gracheva won 60% of her service points, but was broken on four occasions. The Frenchwoman did win 46% of her return points, breaking five times.
Gracheva performs well on clay, going 13-6 this season and 140-70 for her career. The Frenchwoman places her serve well and tries to play offense with her forehand, although she doesn't have overwhelming power from this wing. Gracheva is fairly consistent, hitting with good depth, although her backhand can collapse under pressure. In addition, the 23-year old isn't the best athlete, she's not particularly quick and lacks huge weapons.
Pera is the better player, especially on clay. The American's Elo is 93.9 points higher than Gracheva's and her clay Elo is 179.4 points above the Frenchwoman's.
Pera has the biggest weapon in her red-hot lefty forehand. Pera should be the one dictating play, hitting her cross-court forehand into the weakest shot on the court: Gracheva's backhand.
Pera returned well against Hibino and Gracheva's serve shouldn't overwhelm her, especially on clay, whereas it should be tough for Gracheva to consistently break Pera's serve.
Hitting 19 winners versus 10 unforced errors last match showcases Pera's excellent point construction. She's waiting for the right moments to hit winners, rather than pressing on her groundstrokes.
Pick: Pera -2.5 games (-120 via BetMGM)
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